TEN Fianna Fail places are as good as filled in Mr Bertie Ahern's first Cabinet, according to the conventional wisdom in Leinster House.
The remaining three places to be awarded by the incoming Taoiseach are well oversubscribed. There will be hard and hurtful choices to be made.
It was confirmed yesterday that the Fianna Fail leader will only apply himself to the task of cabinet format ion after the programme for the new minority government has been ratified by the various organs of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats tonight.
The Fianna Fail parliamentary party will be presented with a two page resume of the programme at its meeting this morning. The party's national executive and the national council of the PDs will consider the document at separate meetings at 7.30 this evening. The programme, which runs to about 36 pages, will be published tomorrow.
After the ratification process Mr Ahern is expected to engage in earnest in the task of appointing a Ceann Comhairle, drawing up his cabinet list and making approaches to the seven Independent and two Green Party TDs to secure their support for his nomination as Taoiseach today week.
Of the 15 places at the cabinet table, two are already filled: Ms Mary Harney is expected to be appointed Tanaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Employment and Trade, and Mr Ahern will become Taoiseach.
Ten of the remaining 13 Fianna Fail seats at the cabinet table are deemed by party insiders to be as good as filled. Those certain of ministerial office are: Ms Mary O'Rourke, deputy leader; Mr Dermot Ahern and Mr Noel Dempsey, the two negotiators of the programme for government; Mr Charlie McCreevy, Mr Ray Burke; Mr David Andrews; Mr John O'Donoghue; Mr Brian Cowen; Dr Michael Woods; and Mr Micheal Martin.
There would be up to eight serious contenders for the remaining three ministries: Mr Joe Walsh, Ms Site de Valera, Mr Martin Cullen, Dr Jim McDaid, Mr Eamon O Cuiv, Mr Willie O'Dea, Mr Tom Kitt and Mr Brian Lenihan.
Mr Kitt and Mr Lenihan are expected to be in the running for Government Chief Whip, a position at the cabinet table which will assume a higher than usual importance in a minority coalition government.
Mr O Cuiv is believed to be in line to head up the new portfolio of Rural Development, the Islands and possibly the Gaeltacht, but it was not clear last night whether it would be of cabinet rank.
Mr Cullen, who left the PDs to join Fianna Fail after Ms Harney's assumption of the leadership, is being tipped because Mr Ahern is said to be obliged to appoint a minister from the southeast.
Turning to the question of portfolios Mr Burke is favourite to become Minister for Foreign Affairs. Mr Andrews is tipped for the Cabinet because the Dail arithmetic precludes him from running for the Presidency.
Despite speculation to the contrary, Mr McCreevy is still favoured to become the next Minister for Finance. His main challenger will be Mr Cowen, who would be a contender for Transport, Energy and Communications if the deputy leader, Ms O'Rourke, does not lay claim to it.
The Department of the Environment is likely to be renamed Sustainable Development, with Mr Dempsey tipped for the job.
Mr Dermot Ahern is expected to receive a senior ministry, with speculation that he may be put into Justice despite the fact that he comes from a Border constituency.
In fulfilment of the promise made to have a Cork minister at the cabinet table, Mr Martin is tipped to become Minister for Education. The question being raised is whether the Fianna Fail commitment would be honoured if Mr Walsh were to lose out. Mr David Byrne SC is hotly tipped for appointment as Attorney General.
