Fianna Fail is expected to choose its 1997 general election candidate, Mr Michael Maguire, at the party's Tipperary South by-election convention in Cahir tonight. The party's candidate in last June's by-election, Mr Barry O'Brien, is not seeking the nomination.
Meanwhile, it is expected that the by-election, which was caused by the death of the Fine Gael TD for the constituency, Theresa Ahearn, will not now be held until February or March of next year at the earliest. Although Fine Gael is not commenting publicly on when it will move the writ, pointing out that the party is still in mourning for a popular TD, sources have privately said it will not happen before Christmas.
The front-runner for the Fine Gael nomination is Senator Tom Hayes, from Golden, who polled 8,184 first preferences in last June's by-election and came close to taking the seat. However, there is considerable local speculation that a member of the Ahearn family might be interested in contesting the seat.
Asked about this yesterday, the late Mrs Ahearn's husband, Mr Liam Ahearn, told The Irish Times: "It is too soon to say. The family is saying nothing at the moment."
Three candidates have declared their interest in securing the nomination at tonight's Fianna Fail convention - Mr Maguire, a county councillor for the Tipperary electoral area, Mr Mattie McGrath, a county councillor for the Cahir electoral area, and Ms Sylvia Sheehan-Cooney, a member of Carrick-on-Suir Urban District Council.
Mr Maguire, from Lattin East, was running mate for the outgoing Fianna Fail TD and current Minister of State for Agriculture, Mr Noel Davern, in the 1997 general election, polling 4,151 first-preference votes. However, he was beaten for the nomination for the June by-election by Mr Barry O'Brien, a Clogheen-based county councillor, who went on to finish third in first preferences, as Fianna Fail's vote slumped by 14.5 per cent.
Mr O'Brien has opted out this time, and it is expected Mr Maguire will win tonight's contest. While Mr Maguire has expressed confidence that he could win the seat, if nominated, it would be an uphill struggle to revive the party's fortunes from last June's poor performance, which sent shock waves through the Fianna Fail parliamentary party.
The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, conceded at the time that the result was "particularly disappointing."
The Labour candidate is expected to be the party's sole county councillor, Mr Denis Landy, from Carrick-on-Suir.
The June by-election, which was caused by the death of the party's TD, Mr Michael Ferris, was a major disappointment for Labour, with Ms Ellen Ferris's 16.79 per cent of the vote only marginally up on her late husband's general election performance. Ms Ferris has ruled herself out as a candidate this time.
That by-election was won by the Clonmel-based county councillor, Mr Seamus Healy, of the Workers and Unemployed Act ion Group, who topped the poll with 9,419 votes. Speculation locally is that the group's candidate this time will be Ms Phil Prendergast, from Clonmel, who won a county council seat in lastyear's local elections, and also serves with Mr Healy and two other colleagues as an alderman on Clonmel Corporation.