Thirty per cent of voters are still undecided about how to vote on the Amsterdam Treaty, with a further 13 per cent saying they may not vote at all, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
However, with just six days to polling, the treaty appears almost certain to be approved. Forty-six per cent of those polled last Tuesday and Wednesday said they would probably or definitely vote Yes, with just 11 per cent saying they would probably or definitely vote No.
Despite the Referendum Commission's information campaign and the active Yes and No campaigns of recent days, 51 per cent of voters say they still do not have quite enough information to allow them make a decision. The poll makes clear that very many voters see the treaty as of little importance. Sixty-one per cent say either it will make no difference to them, or they have no opinion on whether it will or not. Asked what effect it would have on Ireland, 48 per cent said it would be good, 10 per cent that it would be bad, 23 per cent that it would make no difference and 19 per cent had no opinion.
The only issue that has caused any serious contention in the debate on the treaty has been that of security and defence, and the poll shows 62 per cent supporting Irish military participation in peacemaking and peacekeeping tasks decided upon by the EU; 24 per cent said Ireland should allow the EU take decisions to send troops on such tasks but should not itself participate in the missions. Just eight per cent said Ireland should block such decisions.
There is more public optimism than trepidation over the effect Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the single currency will have on Ireland. Forty-one per cent of those polled believed EMU would improve Ireland's economic performance, 24 per cent said it would damage Ireland's economic performance, with 25 per cent saying it would make no difference. Just 10 per cent said they had no opinion. Asked whether the State should "unite fully within the European Union" or "protect its independence within the European Union", 30 per cent chose the former with 54 per cent cent choosing the latter. The gap between those favouring integration over independence is smallest among the 18-to-24-year-olds (46 to 37 per cent) and greatest among the over 65s (58 to 21 per cent).
Meanwhile, the Referendum Commission has said its own research shows that its information campaign for the Amsterdam Treaty referendum "has been successful in heightening awareness among the public of the Amsterdam Treaty and of the specific issues involved".
Eighty-two per cent were now aware there was a referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty coming up, it said; "53 per cent of those questioned had seen the publication: Your Questions on the Amsterdam Treaty Answered, 40 per cent had seen advertising on TV, 38 per cent in newspapers and 22 per cent had heard advertising on the radio. Of the 1,000 questioned, only 10 per cent claimed not to have seen or heard any of the commission's information materials."
On the basis of this research and the demand for its publications and the use of the commission's information line and web site "there were clear indications that its contribution, together with the efforts of every branch of the media to inform people in a fair and balanced way, seemed to be succeeding".