A substantial number of farmers are undecided on whether to vote Yes in the Nice referendum, according to a poll of 400 farmers, carried out for the Irish Farmers' Journal, published yesterday.
However, the survey, conducted by Research Interaction Centre, indicates that more farmers would vote for the treaty this time around.
Of the 88 per cent of those who said they intended to vote, 47 per cent said they would vote Yes. Another 19 per cent said they intended to vote No but a significant 31 per cent said they had yet to make up their minds.
The poll, carried out between July 12th and 26th, found that of the 78 per cent who voted last time, 40 per cent voted Yes and 38 per cent voted No.
Analysts believe the low turnout by farmers for the first Nice poll was a major contributory factor to the No vote. A high turnout of farmers and their families is seen to be important in securing a Yes vote this time.
Of the 19 per cent who said they intended to vote No, 61 per cent said they would do so as a protest. Their reasons ranged from increasing bureaucracy to declining incomes.
The poll found that 32 per cent of those intending to vote No cited bureaucracy, 18 per cent cited declining incomes, but only 4 per cent identified the latest reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy as the most influential factor in their voting intentions. The Fischler proposals to reform the CAP were published before the poll was completed, and some farmers answered questions on the issue.
Of those farmers who intend to vote Yes, 19 per cent cited as their main reason the need for the agricultural sector to be supported by a strong Europe; 18 per cent cited the value of the European Union; 17 per cent said the treaty was good for Ireland; 16 per cent thought voting No would be selfish; 15 per cent thought enlargement was good for the EU and 14 per cent said Ireland had no option but to pass the treaty.
The majority of those polled - 56 per cent - said they were somewhat familiar with with the contents of the Nice Treaty. A further 15 per cent said they were familiar with its contents but 29 per cent said they were not.
The poll - which the Journal expects to be the first of three in the run-up to the referendum - found that the issue which caused most concern to those voting No was the State's possible loss of share of the EU agri-budget.
Other concerns expressed included the loss of control over taxation policy (16 per cent); the prospect of fewer Irish MEPs (13 per cent); the loss of a commissioner (13 per cent); an increase in immigration (10 per cent) and possible effects on neutrality (9 per cent).
In its editorial, the Irish Farmers' Journal described the findings as "a wake-up call for everyone who wants the treaty ratified". It said that while support among farmers for a Yes vote was firm enough in the preliminary stages of the campaign, a substantial number had still to make up their minds. It said it was an important finding that 60 per cent of those who intended to vote No would do so to register a protest vote rather than reject the treaty ophilosophical or political grounds.