Half a million Irish workers will need to improve their educational qualifications by 2020 if the Republic is to compete internationally, a major Government report to be published today is expected to reveal.
It is believed that the report by the Expert Group on Future Skills Needs will propose that an additional 500,000 workers will need to progress by "at least" one level of educational attainment above their current highest level by 2020.
The report is also expected to state that the labour force should reach 2.4 million by 2020. This will include 1.43 million already in the workforce, to be augmented by some one million extra workers. Details of the report's contents have been outlined to educationalists and career experts, including college presidents, in recent weeks.
The report is understood to state that the number of school leavers proceeding to third level will have to increase by 15 per cent by 2020. It will also propose an eight per cent increase in the numbers completing the Leaving Certificate.
The new workforce of 2.4 million will include 310,000 extra workers who are immigrants or who enter the workforce as a result of "increased participation" - mostly women returning to the workforce - by 2020.
Another 640,000 will come through the education system.
Future employment projections contained in the report indicate a shift away from agriculture and manufacturing towards finance, business services and public administration, education and health.
Despite fears of a property slowdown, the report is expected to forecast only a marginal decrease in construction employment, from 13 per cent in 2005 to 12 per cent by 2020.
The report is also likely to predict big increases in the number of workers employed in managerial or professional roles, up by 70 per cent and 107 per cent respectively. It projects a 79 per cent increase in service industry roles.
Conversely, it will predict a 37 per cent decrease in farm workers, and a 5 per cent decrease in those working in manufacturing.
The cost of implementing the recommendations contained in the report could have serious implications for the Government.
Some €2.3 billion allocated for human capital investment under the new National Development Plan is expected to finance some of the proposed changes.
The projected increase in student numbers by 2020 outlined in the report - indicating that at least 20,000 extra students will be enrolled at third level - will place huge strain on the current system.
The newly appointed UCC president, Dr Michael Murphy, recently suggested that undergraduate fees must be reintroduced as Irish universities cannot compete with international competitors.
Furthermore, the report is expected to propose that 70 per cent of school leavers will be required to proceed to third level by 2020, up from 55 per cent today. As many as 90 per cent of students will have to complete the Leaving Cert, up from 82 per cent currently.
The report, Tomorrow's Skills: Towards a National Skills Strategy, will be jointly launched today by the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Micheál Martin TD, and the Minister for Education and Science, Mary Hanafin.
Among the skills understood to have been identified in the report as key for the future are management level skills, sales and marketing, and languages. Within occupations, there is likely to be a demand for a wider range of knowledge, more qualifications and technical skills, continuing learning and skills for dealing with others.
The report is expected to predict that Irish workers will need to upskill dramatically by 2020. This is because 9 per cent more jobs will require degree level or higher qualifications; 4 per cent more will require certificates or diplomas; and 2 per cent more will require a minimum Leaving Cert standard.
The Expert Group on Future Skills Needs is a body appointed by the Government, under the aegis of Forfás, to act as the central national resource on skills and labour supply issues for the enterprise sector, and on overall strategy for enterprise training in Ireland.
The report of the group, chaired by Anne Heraty, also proposes a vision of "a competitive, innovation-driven, knowledge-based, participative and inclusive economy" with a highly-skilled labour force by 2020.