ANALYSIS: The motion of no confidence in Charlie McCreevy was a stunt from which the Government gained at least as much as the Opposition, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent
And so the Dáil has voted confidence in the Minister for Finance on the eve of the announcement of the first hair-shirt spending estimates since the beginning of the economic boom over a decade ago.
Observers in Leinster House are asking whether Fine Gael got its parliamentary tactics wrong in putting down the motion of no confidence in the Minister for Finance at this stage. There are advantages and disadvantages to putting down motions of no confidence. But whatever about the pros and cons, most deputies are aware that the parliamentary jousting of the past two days will have only a limited impact on the public.
For Fine Gael and its new leader, the motion of no confidence was seen as an ideal opportunity to embarrass the Government and gain a profile for Mr Kenny. After a summer and autumn of drip-fed news of cutbacks, the Opposition had won public support for their claims that the Government, the Taoiseach and Mr McCreevy had misled voters about the true nature of the Government finances to win re-election in May. With Mr McCreevy's parsimonious budget estimates imminent, they calculated now was the time to win attention for their rhetorical condemnations of him.
However, Fine Gael's tactics have had negative effects for them too, and have played into the hands of the Government's news management strategy. Ministers and political advisors are saying at every opportunity that if you think the Estimates and the Budget will be bad, well they will be even worse than you expect. The aim is to manage public expectations downwards so that when they finally come, the Estimates and Budget announcements will not be characterised by the media as days of devastation and horror.
The no confidence motion gave the Taoiseach and his Ministers just that opportunity to go out and condition public opinion as to how bad things will be. Indeed the opposition speakers in the debate had the same effect. Perhaps when the Budget is announced, it may be perceived as being a little less severe than the advance billing had suggested. That, in public relations terms, would represent a major success for the Coalition.
No confidence motions also have the effect of galvanising the Government parties. This one brought out the Taoiseach and Tánaiste to deliver colourful and carefully scripted speeches that had enough soundbites to ensure clips from them were broadcast on radio and television stations and quoted in the press. The motion gave the Opposition a platform, but gave the Government one too. The Taoiseach's ringing endorsement of Mr McCreevy last Monday was widely covered.
When a no confidence motion in a particular Minister is dealt with, the Opposition cannot put down another for six months. However, they will have plenty of other opportunity to attack the Government's economic record and hope their views are disseminated through the media to the public. Next week sees a debate on the estimates. The December 4th Budget will be followed by several days of Dáil statements. The resulting Finance Bill will dominate the legislative agenda.
According to a Labour Party spokesman, there are always pluses and minuses to a motion of no confidence. "They give us a platform but they allow the Government to rally the troops. Given the Government majority, they will not be passed, in contrast to the last Dáil when it was always theoretically possible that we could prise a couple of independents away from them."
It remains one of the oldest parliamentary rituals, and one of the few events which guarantee greater coverage of the Dáil. But with the Government having a comfortable majority, it is essentially a stunt designed for public consumption rather than an event with any parliamentary meaning.