SOUTH AFRICA:Thabo Mbeki may have to quit if he can't work with the ANC's new president, writes Musa Zondi
Much has been written about how former ANC President Thabo Mbeki was unceremoniously swept off from the helm of the organisation that had become his family for most of his adult life.
The new president Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma's emphatic win now puts him in sight of the country's presidency - albeit with a few rather serious mountains to climb, like the impending corruption case.
So already there are two scenarios. A philosopher president who is on his way out. A black Englishman, some have called him, he leaves the centre stage for a less arduous task of just running the country.
Educated in Sussex, and partial to the finer things in life, Mbeki wowed the international community and emphatically placed the African agenda on the world stage. But he was found wanting in his backyard, declaring in a country where millions have contracted HIV and thousands perish of Aids that he did not know a single person who died as a result of their Aids status. Mind you, he asserted that the syndrome could not cause a disease - a position that earned him scorn and derision many feel he richly deserved. He remains the leader of the country.
On the other hand, a singing president has taken over the ruling party.
Diminutively referring himself as just a man from Nkandla in KwaZulu-Natal - as opposed to the hallowed corridors of England - he has been described as the man of the people, and Zuma makes no claims to being well read. Indeed, he is not, but that has not stopped him from rising to the highest ranks of the organisation as well as the country.
The same Zuma was deputy president of the country until he was sacked a few years ago after his so-called financial adviser Schabir Shaik was found guilty of fraud and sentenced to 15 years.
Nor did it help Zuma that he was charged with rape, a case many suspected was linked to the succession battle that was then unfolding. He was found not guilty with the judge in the case shredding the police investigation and casting serious doubt on the complainant who then quickly left the country.
Now this man is the president of the ruling party.
It is tempting to say that these two centres of power cannot hold which begs the question: How will the country fare caught between two men whose style is so different? Zuma has already extended an olive branch to Mbeki by calling on him to be an elder providing counsel and wisdom to the organisation.
Will he, in a fit of petulance for which Mbeki is renowned, see this as an opportunity to redeem himself and leave a better legacy? Or will he interpret it as triumphalism and reject the overture? It is generally accepted that Mbeki deals with those who have crossed his path rather viciously. This time around, he may be expecting to taste his own medicine.
Where does that take South Africa? Mbeki is supposed to stay in office for the next 18 months. And, notwithstanding his comments yesterday suggesting his government will serve its full term, it is a position that will clearly become untenable as he will have to take the orders from the ruling party, and by extension, from a man he seemed to so despise when he referred pointedly to "rapists and criminals".
One of the veterans of the struggle, Rashaka Rashitanga thinks that the Zuma presidency and those elected to party leading positions will be good for the ANC and ultimately for the country.
"We have a leadership that will complement each other in Zuma, Kgalema Motlhante, Gwede Mantashe, Baleka Mbete, Thandi Modise and Mathew Phosa," he says.
One of Zuma's best attributes is that he can listen, he argues. "We know that we can walk into his office and tell him when we feel that he is no longer following the mandate that he has been given," he says, adding that Zuma is best placed to deal with tribalism in government and in the ruling party.
In short, it is immaterial what Mbeki wants to do. The onus is on Mbeki and his people to come to the party.
If not there are a number of options including the likelihood of him standing down or calling a snap election. That would make it easier for everyone. Despite a proposal to draw up protocol for the party relations with the government, what we know of Mbeki does not bode well for this arrangement to work.
Raised and made to believe he is clever, will he be willing to take orders, from, as it were, an uneducated herd boy? A sinister text message circulated anonymously to some members of the ANC shortly after Zuma was elected urging members to build the party and, more importantly, engage in political education did not sit well with some delegates.
Was the education supposed to make members vote for the correct, properly educated candidates? One activist who attended the conference and received the message interpreted it to mean exactly that. He was not impressed. "In future the party will be more cautious about running miles ahead of its followers," he argues. The faithful cannot be taken for granted and have proved that they will never allow anyone to do that.
He believes there is no role for Mbeki in the ANC anymore but it depends on him how the relationship is going to pan out. If Mbeki does not accept that, he will commit another mistake and stability depends on the ones who lost.
It is time to rebuild with or without Mbeki, the activist argues, reflecting a broadly held view. Without him it will be easier. "People have voted against abuse of state resources, against arrogance and for humility. There may not have been corpses lying around, but it became clear that the Mbeki rule had degenerated into an Orwellian dictatorship. Just as he was dumped in Polokwane, he will be dumped again if he tries to get in the way of the movement," he says.
Therein lies the rub. There is a growing view thatfor Mbeki to save himself further embarrassment, he should do the honourable thing and resign. The country, the argument goes, can ill-afford the two centres of power.
Musa Zondi is a journalist with the Sowetan.