`Ireland won't ever have the same place on the agenda. No matter who wins, they couldn't possibly be as good as Bill Clinton." So said a leading light on the Irish-American scene when commenting on the US presidential election, now 10 days away. The source wouldn't comment on who might win, let alone whom he'd like to win, for fear of damaging future relations.
It can be said, however, that for the Government here, which must keep a distance, and for many Irish Americans, Al Gore is the better prospect. Firstly, the Democrats have always been more interested and committed to Ireland than the Republicans, who have tended to side with the British, and secondly, Gore has been part of an administration which during the past eight years has devoted huge time and energy to our problems.
On the other hand, George W. Bush went further than Gore at the Republican convention in support of the peace process, and many Irish Americans, being deeply conservative on such issues as abortion, support him. While a strong Irish caucus group has emerged among Republicans on the Hill, Bush's stance on Ireland is unclear.
The chairman of Irish for Bush is a New York-based lawyer with Galway ancestors, Grant Lally, who recently qualified as a solicitor here under reciprocity arrangements. Irish for Bush covers 35 states, he says, but no Irish ancestors have been found in the Bush family tree. The claim that Gore has connections with Crossabeg, Co Wexford, from 1749, gives him the edge here.
Should Bush win - and this week he was ahead by a mere 1 per cent - there will be a huge change in personnel in Washington and abroad, and Dublin will have to embrace a whole new flock of influential contacts.
The extremely popular ambassador to Ireland, Mike Sullivan, will almost certainly be packing his bags and departing from the Phoenix Park. By tradition, when a new US President is inaugurated, ambassadors tender their resignations and those who are not career diplomats but are political appointees of the previous administration, are replaced. This is the case for Sullivan.
Bush would appoint a Republican; Gore might keep Sullivan. The ambassador's last big occasion could be to host the outgoing President later this year. Clinton wants to come to Northern Ireland - his one big foreign policy success - now that the Middle East is in turmoil and the Balkans are still rumbling. All sides acknowledge that the Belfast Agreement would never have happened but for the Americans, and great efforts are already being made to ensure that the Northern Executive doesn't collapse before Clinton leaves office on January 20th. It is unlikely a decision will be made on the date of a visit until after the November 7th elections.