A triumph for US military strategists

Baghdad has now been added to that list of locations that Centcom considers liberated from the Iraqi regime, writes Dr Tom Clonan…

Baghdad has now been added to that list of locations that Centcom considers liberated from the Iraqi regime, writes Dr Tom Clonan

But after decades of repression and dictatorial rule, the place is in free-fall. Public disorder has taken hold of the city's streets with an explosive mix of jubilation, looting and shooting. US troops will be very cautious as they infiltrate this unstable environment.

With uninhibited Iraqi citizens discharging their weapons into the air, settling old scores and scavenging for food and water, the situation in the capital will remain confused.

This confusion will be complicated by continued attacks on US troops by armed elements attempting to flee to Sunni strongholds such as Tikrit. Tikrit might yet become the scene of the regime's last stand against the US in Iraq.

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Saddam no longer controls Baghdad. For the moment, however, neither do the Americans. Centcom will have to continue to fight hard to wrest control of the city and the remainder of the country from remaining pockets of resistance and the anarchic forces of retribution and internecine strife associated with Iraqi Shia and Sunni Muslims.

The Americans will be especially conscious at this delicate stage of the war for the requirement to win the hearts and minds of the liberated Iraqi populace. For this confidence to grow, it will be vital that US troops behave with restraint and avoid excessive civilian casualties. In addition to these concerns, the US will also be required to address the question of Kurdish nationalism in northern Iraq.

With these factors in mind, the issue of rebuilding Iraq, along with the interim period of stability required for such reconstruction, will be the subject of international debate. Tensions between France, Germany, Russia and the US and Britain are being rekindled as President Chirac calls for the UN to be given the lead role in securing Iraq's future. The US and Britain are insisting that having fought the war in Iraq, they will play the dominant role in ensuring the peace.

As Saddam's regime implodes, the US and British will be keen to avoid a Balkans-style disintegration within Iraq. They would see the requirement for the immediate establishment of a stabilisation force that would be sufficiently configured and disposed so as to prevent civil war in Iraq. Such a force would have to have a strong peace enforcement mandate and be possessed of a robust combat capability.

The Americans and British will argue that it would take the UN some time to approve such a mandate. It would be argued that it would take weeks, perhaps months, for such a UN force to be assembled and deployed.

In these circumstances, President Bush and Prime Minister Blair will be arguing for a US and British-led interim occupation of Iraq with UN approval and support.

In military terms, the invasion of Iraq thus far will be considered a great success for the Bush administration. The US Secretary for Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, stated at the outset of this campaign that it would be a war "fought like no other". The concept of operations agreed between the Pentagon and the State Department envisaged a relatively light invasion force relying on technological superiority, air power and psychological operations to topple Saddam's regime.

After three weeks in which less than 100 US troops have been killed in action, Centcom will be pleased with images of US troops moving at will throughout Baghdad. Centcom will also derive satisfaction from images of Iraqi civilians destroying statues of Saddam and other symbols of the Baath party. At this point, the words "I told you so" cannot be far from Gen Tommy Franks's lips.

The use of smart munitions in unprecedented numbers in this campaign, combined with the bypassing where possible of Iraqi formations, allowed for a dramatic armoured advance on Baghdad. Despite the Turkish-imposed setback which prevented the opening of a second overland front, the Americans successfully inserted special forces and airborne units to secure territory to the north of Baghdad and to direct Kurdish units in northern Iraq.

If the stabilisation phase of this campaign is equally successful, the US will have achieved a dramatic victory in Iraq. Such a victory will generate a great deal of unease among the soukhs and bazaars of Teheran and Damascus in neighbouring Iran and Syria.

Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT.