THE Dun Laoghaire constituency was once looked on as the independent republic of Fine Gael. Fine Gael candidates only had to turn up and they were elected. People like Cosgrave and Dockrell cruised into Leinster House without drawing breath. Fine Gael ruled the roost: it was unstoppable.
"God, it was great," said a senior party worker, happily reminiscing on the good old days. "There were only three parties in contention in those days and we had a huge slice of the cake. Today it is bloody hard work and you have to go out and fight for every vote.
Yes, upstarts like Democratic Left, the Progressive Democrats and the Greens have all arrogantly jumped out of the woodwork in recent elections and queered the pitch. They all want to play the game. What used to be a cakewalk for Fine Gael and to a lesser extent, Fianna Fail - is now a tightrope for the big parties.
The historic old borough of Kingstown and its extensive hinterland now provide one of the biggest political battlegrounds in the State. There is a mixed and volatile electorate in the constituency, which stretches along the coast from Booterstown almost as far as Bray, and inland to the Stillorgan dual carriageway. There is a great spread of the wealthy, middleclass and poor in the area.
The result is clearly reflected in the vote. In 1992 the electorate gave all the main parties, with the exception of the Greens, a seat. Left, right and centre were given a voice. It looks as though the voters are going to do the same this time.
The big question is: can David Andrews, who has comfortably held a Fianna Fail seat since 1965, bring in his running mate, Mary Hanafin?. The party ran three candidates in the last election and couldn't get a second seat. This time it is aiming for better vote management and less leakage.
However, political opponents consider Ms Hanafin, a daughter of Des Hanafin, of the Pro Life Campaign, "lightweight" with no high profile in the constituency. They do not think she can make it. Nevertheless, with the usual huge Andrews surplus and a swing to Fianna Fail, they might just he proved wrong. The fight for the fifth seat is going to be very tight, with maybe a handful of votes deciding it in the end.
Not to be outdone, Fine Gael has also reduced its candidates from three to two. The Minister for the Marine, Sean Barrett, should get through. Monica Barnes, who lost her seat in 1992, has a good liberal track record. Yet observers say she has been five years out of the action and this will tell against her.
The constituency is well stocked with two senior and one junior ministers who have been diligently looking after the grass roots. Niamh Bhreathnach of Labour notched up 10,074 first preferences in the last election and held on to Barry Desmond's old seat.
For this excellent achievement, she was appointed Minister for Education on her first day in the Dail, quite a meteoric rise for the Blackrock teacher. The political punters say she is going to be "all right" this time round. However, one of her senior election strategists stressed: "We are not being complacent. Politics is a funny old game: anything can happen.
The Minister of State for the Marine, Eamon Gilmore of Democratic Left, a tireless worker who never forgets the grassroots, is also expected to return. He got 7,045 first preferences in 1992 and has been consolidating his position ever since. A former trade union official, he is highly regarded by his party and was one of the negotiators of the programme for government.
The Progressive Democrats have had a strong niche in this constituency since they were founded. Helen Keogh has a good chance of retaining her seat. She has had a high profile since her election. In a small party like the PDs, she is given a lot of scope and was a regular and competent performer on many issues in the last Dail. She also has the benefit of being a member of Dun LaoghaireRathdown County Council.
Vincent MacDowell will carry the flag for the Greens. He polled a respectable 1,784 first preferences in 1992. Other runners include Paddy Madigan (Independent) and Ger Casey (Christian Solidarity Party).