A year with its share of drama and trauma

May Drapier first of all wish his readers, be they presidents, archbishops or like himself mere backbenchers, a happy Christmas…

May Drapier first of all wish his readers, be they presidents, archbishops or like himself mere backbenchers, a happy Christmas. He hopes his colleagues will have time off to recharge their batteries and reflect upon a year with more than its share of drama and trauma.

If Drapier were a sports writer, he would describe the year as one of two halves. It began with John Bruton in the ascendant, growing in confidence and stature as Taoiseach and, as they say, with it all to play for. The year ends, however, with Bertie Ahern dominating the centre of the field, spraying well-aimed passes and likely to continue in that mode.

For some, and nowhere more than in the Labour Party, it was an annus horribilis. Just to describe what happened is to catalogue a year of dismal events: half the parliamentary party lost their Dail seats, five seats of nine went in the Seanad, a presidential catastrophe and, finally, the departure of the most inspiring leader in the party's history, accompanied by some of the architects of Labour's finest achievements.

The PDs had a miserable year too, but for the survivors there were at least the consolations of office. They began the year buoyed up on a state of unjustified presumption. Fourteen seats were airily spoken of but the election campaign was a nightmare, surpassed only by the awfulness of the result. The party had the stuffing knocked out of it and questions began to emerge about its existence as a separate entity.

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In the past weeks, it has re gained some of its composure, mainly because of the good relationship between Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney and the general steadiness of the Government and its good performance.

However, Drapier would not put too much store on this new-found steadiness. "Skipgate", as it is called, was profoundly embarrassing, not because the PDs no more than any other party was doing anything wrong, it's just that seeing the PDs in this type of situation produces the sort of glee in most people which schoolchildren get from seeing a bossy or prissy teacher caught in flagrante behind the garden shed.

At least the next time a member of the PDs reaches for the high moral tone there will be a ready answer - up to a point.

The whole point of the PDs in the first place was that they were different, they did aspire to a moral perspective which many saw lacking in politics, their view of the world was distinctive and the essence of the PDs was to be spiky and generally uncosy and unclubbable. Dessie O'Malley in other words or, at a stretch, Michael McDowell.

The PDs survived their period in office with Charles Haughey and Albert Reynolds precisely because they were spiky and cranky, at least on the issues dear to their constituency. Not for nothing were the PDs of those years described as a media-driven party, their antennae forever alert to shifting changes in popular mood. Now, however, they are snug and secure in government.

Hardly a day passes without our hearing how well the new partnership is working, how smoothly decisions are taken and problems ironed out. It has made Fianna Fail very happy. There may be no great warmth but one rarely hears the snide or bitter comments of yesteryear.

Fianna Fail is in a no-lose situation. The PDs, on the other hand, are in danger of being smothered, indeed drowned in Fianna Fail kindness and the more thoughtful members of the party know this. What to do about it is another matter and there is no obvious answer - or if there is, it is called Michael McDowell who is now living in splendid isolation in Ranelagh les deux eglises.

As for Labour, Ruairi Quinn at least has a ready-made structure in place and a clearer constituency to address in his efforts at renewal. He also has the luxury of three years in opposition and the local elections to provide new Dail candidates.

He has a number of clearly marked constituencies which can be targeted as winnable marginals. Jack Wall showed in the last general election that even in a truly bad year, Labour can still gain new seats. A win for Sean Ryan in Dublin North would be a great boost to Ruairi Quinn.

He has been around a long time and two things the Labour Party teaches you is to have patience and to have a sense of humour. Ruairi has both and he has an international perspective on developments in socialist and social democratic movements which, at a time of growing centrism or consensus, may give Labour something new and distinctive to offer.

Ruairi's most difficult problem is not whether he goes into coalition again, but with whom and in what circumstances. Labour in the past opted to go the no-coalition route, waiting for the "Seventies to be socialist". It was not a success and gave Fianna Fail a free run for over a decade.

Ruairi Quinn will not make that mistake; his party sees itself as a party of government, not of protest. The question is, does he take the easy option and go the Fianna Fail route or seek some sort of rainbow alternative?

Drapier's view is that Ruairi, quite sensibly, will keep his powder dry on this one. It will not be very credible to attack Fianna Fail while openly prepared to go into government with it. He also knows it was the decision to go in with Fianna Fail after denouncing it for years which, more than anything else, undermined Dick Spring. Nor will he find it easy to bring some of his most trusted parliamentary colleagues down this road.

In Dublin, especially, Labour has to be different from Fianna Fail but neither can it be too close to Fine Gael. The Dublin middle-class liberal vote is still a rich fishing ground and, as far as Ruairi is concerned, a very tight rope is there to be walked.

Fine Gael began the year strongly and has ended it less so. Considerably less so, as it is now out of office. John Bruton's mistake in the presidential election cost him, rather than the party, a temporary decline in support. It wasn't that he said anything particularly wrong; it was his timing.

Time is on his side though. He has the opportunity to reorganise the party in a way that was not possible when he was last in opposition; he has some impressive and hungry new TDs - Brian Hayes, Denis Naughten, John Perry, Billy Timmons and Deirdre Clune have all settled in well and will not tolerate a less than full-blooded effort from their elders. John Bruton has learnt to be more patient and more magisterial and to leave the ground-hurling to others; he ends the year with good reason for optimism, at least in the medium term.

Bertie Ahern has most to be happy about. He has ended the year strongly, looking the part of a Taoiseach and firm in the popularity ratings. He had some bad moments and the early weeks of government were jittery. His handling of Albert Reynolds and Ray Burke was bad to terrible, but it has left no real damage.

The people like him, his Government colleagues and the PDs are under control, the economy is booming as never before, so why should he worry?

A final reflection on 1997 concerns our President. Drapier advised Mary McAleese on her election day to have a long chat with that wise and decent man, Patrick Hillery because, in Drapier's view, the Presidency is an office to be handled with restraint and subtlety. It is a mine field through which most previous presidents, at least those with long political experience, trod very carefully indeed. So far at least, our new President has shown little sign of either restraint or subtlety.

In Drapier's view she is in too much of a hurry and is too hands-on or, as the new saying goes, "in your face". For example her reaction to the Ireland on Sunday article was way over the top; the behind-the-scenes attempts to berate sections of the media for the coverage of the Christ Church incident were unwise and any President who can, however unwittingly, set the churches at each other's throats should take time out for reflection. Otherwise, however well-intentioned she is and however sincere her motives, it will all end in tears. Next week, the first in 1998, Drapier will be doling out his annual and much-coveted awards. Nominations close on New Year's Eve. In the meantime, enjoy what's left of Christmas.