The Government's planned referendum on abortion is in danger of defeat, with just a small majority of committed voters indicating that they are prepared to support it, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent.
Some 39 per cent of the electorate would vote for the Government's amendment on abortion, 34 per cent would vote against, 21 per cent have no opinion and 6 per cent would not vote, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
There is more opposition than backing among supporters of Fine Gael, Labour, the Progressive Democrats, Munster voters and voters aged 18 to 24.
The Taoiseach and Tánaiste plan to set a date in early March for the referendum, probably at next week's Cabinet meeting.
However, such a narrow majority will cause them concern in the light of the 1992 abortion poll, when a more substantial pro-amendment majority at the outset of the campaign was whittled away, ending in a decisive rejection of the proposal.
The hope of the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, for a "broad, middle-ground consensus" appears to have evaporated amid deep division on the referendum.
The main aim of the measure is to remove a threat of suicide as grounds for abortion, as allowed for the first time in the Supreme Court ruling in the X case.
The measure would also give legal protection to the unborn child from the time of implantation rather than the moment of conception.
Some 50 per cent of Progressive Democrat supporters say that they would vote against the proposal, 25 per cent are in favour, with 20 per cent offering no opinion and 5 per cent saying that they would not vote on the amendment.
Among Fianna Fáil supporters, 44 per cent are in favour of the proposed amendment, 34 per cent are against, with 17 per cent not giving an opinion and 5 per cent saying that they would not vote.
Some 40 per cent of Labour voters oppose the amendment, 32 per cent are in favour, 25 per cent offered no opinion and 3 per cent would not vote.
Fine Gael voters are 39 per cent against the plan, 35 per cent in favour, 20 per cent having no opinion and 7 per cent saying that they would not vote.
Some 61 per cent of those questioned believe that a referendum on abortion should be held, 27 per cent believe that there should not be a referendum and 12 per cent offered no opinion.
However, a significant minority of those who want a referendum say that they will vote No.
Of those who believe that a poll should be held, 58 per cent say they will vote Yes, 26 per cent that they will vote No, 14 per cent express no opinion and 2 per cent say that they will not vote.