It's almost official - Gore will beat Bush in November, writes Joe Carroll.
That is what seven forecasts by academics confidently predict according to complex mathematical formulae which have proved right in almost every presidential election since 1948.
The results of the forecasts have been presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association.
However, for some reason, the Bush campaign is still continuing and Vice-President Al Gore has not yet called off his electioneering to wait until he is announced the winner on November 7th.
The Washington Post published the preliminary results by the professors last May showing Mr Gore was certain to win, but again no one took much notice.
It probably did not help that Mr Gore was well behind in the opinion polls at the time. But the professors have their own infallible methods. It's the economy, stupid.
All seven models combine a measurement of public opinion this summer with the strength of the economy or how Americans perceive their economic wellbeing.
One of the academic seers is Alan Abramowitz, Professor of Political Science at Emory University.
He said: "The outcome of a presidential election can be accurately predicted based on factors that are known well before the official campaign gets under way.
"Despite the time, effort and money devoted to campaigning, there is very little that the candidates can do during September and October to alter the eventual outcome of a presidential election," Prof Abramowitz told the Post.
He gives Mr Gore 53.2 per cent of the major party vote after deducting 4 per cent because he is trying to win a third time in a row for the Democrats.
The academics do not dismiss campaigns altogether. They are useful for motivating people, reminding them of the issues and publicising the candidates, but the voters have already decided according to calculations based on the last 50 years of elections.
Nothing that has happened so far in the election campaign has shaken their confidence in their forecasts all seven academics say.
There's confidence for you.
The latest poll, conducted last Wednesday and Thursday and published in Newsweek yesterday, has Mr Gore leading Mr Bush by 49 to 39 per cent - the vice-president's first significant lead of the campaign. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is at 3 per cent and the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan at 1 per cent.