If you want to know if a child is going to make it to third level, look at its address. In Foxrock, more than 90 per cent of secondary students go on to third level, while in north-west Dublin the rate is 13 per-cent.
Achieving high points in the Leaving Cert exam is directly related to economic privilege, says Áine Galvin, director of ERA (Equal Rights to Access) at UCD. The league tables of secondary schools prove this.
Dr Patrick Clancy's research over 20 years has shown that educational disadvantage starts at the pre-school level and intensifies through primary and secondary school. Token access programmes have helped a few but are just a drop in the ocean.
Over the past 20 years, the educated classes and the educationally disadvantaged classes have become further entrenched in separate worlds.
While many people have benefited from an era of educational opportunity - with the number proceeding to third level increasing from 25 to 40 per cent in the past 20 years - many others have remained stuck in an educational abyss.
In some areas of the State, only half of students manage to complete the Leaving Cert.
Access to education is a hot issue and both TCD and UCD are nurturing young people with potential by bringing them into university and financially supporting them, even when their Leaving Cert points are insufficient.
But the numbers are small: 25 school-leavers from disadvantaged backgrounds are brought into a student body of more than 10,000 at TCD. About 100 are brought into UCD, where students number 20,000.
Many of these students have attended schools that do not have honours-levels classes and have had to teach themselves honours subjects while sitting in ordinary level classes.
Instead of rejecting them on the basis of points alone, the college admits 25 a year to a foundation course in September to prepare them for academic life and for their chosen courses.
The foundation year is crucial to preparing disadvantaged students for college, says Cliona Hannon, access officer with TAP (Trinity Access Programme).
Landing at TCD as an freshman without support would bring a high risk of failure for students who are unaccustomed to a privileged social and cultural milieu. "You cannot take students with 250-350 points from a disadvantaged school and throw them in with confident, middle-class kids with 450-550 points. It is just not going to work," Ms Hannon says.
The success rate of the Trinity programme is high: of the 25 students in a typical year's foundation course, 20 go on to do a college course there and 16 get degrees.
These students are direct entry, which means they are awarded places outside the CAO scheme. A similar programme runs for mature students.
Ms Hannon would like to see more students from disadvantaged areas attending TCD, but requests for additional Government funding have not been met.
TCD has also tried to change attitudes about university among children from 31 primary and secondary schools in Dublin's disadvantaged areas by bringing them on to the campus for special events and workshops.
UCD also runs programmes for children in more than 30 schools in the Leinster area.
On Tuesday, 105 Leaving Cert students from disadvantaged backgrounds will be offered places in UCD despite having scored lower points than necessary. They are regarded as having been deprived of fulfilling their potential thus far, due to socio-economic liabilities. As at TCD, they are offered direct entry places, so they are not taking places away from students who have earned them on points.
Unlike TAP, however, the students go straight into freshman year after an intensive two-week orientation. They receive tutorial and other support if they request it.
While the success stories are encouraging, the fact remains that the few hundred students being helped by access programmes are the exception.