POLAND’S CENTRE-RIGHT government was celebrating last night after early results indicated their candidate Bronislaw Komorowski is on course to become president.
His rival, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, conceded defeat last night after failing narrowly in his bid to succeed his late brother, Lech, as head of state.
“Polish democracy has won but we should wait with the champagne until tomorrow,” said Mr Komorowski, acknowledging the tight result.
Ahead of final results today, first returns from one-fifth of polling stations gave Mr Komorowski 50.6 per cent against 49.4 per cent for Mr Kaczynski. An earlier exit poll gave Mr Komorowski 53 per cent and Mr Kaczynski 46.9 per cent. The early result for turnout was 54.6 per cent.
“We need to wait until all votes are counted,” acknowledged prime minister Donald Tusk, head of the Civic Platform Party (PO).
Yesterday’s run-off, after an undecided first round two weeks ago, was prompted by April’s air crash in western Russia that killed Mr Kaczynski, his wife Maria and 94 other leading public figures.
Overnight, the accident transformed Mr Komorowski (58) from a moderate conservative parliamentary speaker to Poland’s acting head of state.
He acknowledged last night the campaign’s difficult circumstances – triggered by tragedy and overshadowed by widespread flooding – but said Poland had “passed the test as a democratic state”.
“Despite our differences, Poland is our common property and we will do everything to build up, not divisions, but a sense of community,” he said to supporters cheering “Bronek! Bronek!”
At his headquarters, surrounded by stricken supporters, Jaroslaw Kaczynski (61), head of the Law and Justice (PiS) party looked remarkably satisfied with the result. The opposition leader used his concession speech to kick off next year’s general election. “My brother’s tragic, martyr death brought us to today’s result. A new quality has come into Polish public life thanks to him,” he said, looking happier than he has in months.
The PiS leader is best remembered around Europe for serving as prime minister until 2007, in two years marked by political drama and arguments.
By contrast, Mr Kaczynski’s presidential campaign was a muted, conciliatory affair, in which he vowed to “finish the work” of his brother.
“Poland has changed and we have to use this power we have collected,” he said. “We have to change Poland, we have to mobilise and we have to win.”
Political analysts agreed last night that it was the Kaczynski result, not Mr Komorowski’s win, that was the most remarkable feature of the poll – doubling his political support to almost 50 per cent in less than three months.
“He has such a mobilisation force and ran a far better campaign. Mr Tusk knows that, too,” said sociologist Jadwiga Staniszkis. “Many important things have happened in this campaign to PiS: the party has been modernised and a new generation mobilised. It’s all capital for the next election.”
The resurgence in support for Mr Kaczynski turns up the heat on Mr Tusk’s administration.
After four years of reform standstill, which his government blamed on presidential vetoes from the late Mr Kaczynski, Mr Tusk has just a year to swing into high gear.
With Mr Komorowski’s assistance, he needs to deliver quickly on the promised health reforms and austerity measures.
This was the cornerstone of Mr Komorowski’s campaign – to end the legislative backlog. Financial markets, after welcoming his election, will now watch for results.
The government knows it will face energetic criticism from a resurgent PiS opposition. In the presidential campaign, PiS accused Mr Komorowski of being Mr Tusk’s stooge, not an independent thinker.
Komorowski supporters, however, were confident last night that their man would not be dependent on the government.
“He will be an independent thinker in office,” said voter Malgorzata Blonska (58) from Gdansk.
“If we kept arguing, we are not going to get anywhere. Mr Kaczynski is still only interested in arguing, I don’t believe you can change your character that much, not at 61.”
Mr Komorowski’s win came despite being hobbled in his efforts to recall his rival’s fractious coalition with extreme-right parties. In live television debates, Mr Kaczynski brushed off the attacks by demanding his rival show traditional deference to the deceased and to those in mourning.
After the undecided first round, both leading candidates made a play for the support of third place, left-wing candidate, Grzegorz Napieralski, but when he declined to endorse either candidate, Mr Kaczynski went to huge lengths to woo Napieralski voters.
In his most audacious move, the staunchly anti-communist Mr Kaczynski praised Edward Gierek, 1970s secretary general of Poland’s communist party, as a “Polish patriot” and “the best of all first secretaries”.
Early results yesterday suggest his effort was partly successful, if not enough to win the poll.
“Although he didn’t win,” said political scientist Radoslaw Markowski, “we need to analyse closely where the extra 25 per cent for Mr Kaczynski has come from.”