AER LINGUS last night cancelled 12 flights to and from Scotland today because of the risk posed by volcanic ash from Iceland.
The cancellations were announced in spite of earlier assurances by the Irish Aviation Authority that no flight disruptions were likely for at least 48 hours following the volcanic eruption at Grimsvötn in southeastern Iceland.
Aer Lingus said that it had no choice but to cancel its services to and from Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen because forecasters were predicting that ash from the eruption on Saturday would encroach on Scottish airspace throughout today. It said none of its other flights were affected.
Last night Ryanair said it did not expect any airspace closures or disruption to its schedules although it advised intending passengers to check its website for updates.
Scientists have described the eruption as the largest at the volcano for 100 years but said disruption on the same scale as that which followed the eruption at Eyjafjallajökull last year was unlikely.
Before Aer Lingus announced the cancellations, the aviation authority had warned that there was a risk some ash cloud could reach parts of northern Europe by today. While it did not expect any flight cancellations today or tomorrow, it stressed that the situation was “fluid” and said that things could change later in the week.
“We don’t believe there will be any kind of disruption in the next 48 hours,” said Martin Towey, the authority’s senior aviation executive.
The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in London said the ash would reach Ireland by 6am today and warned airlines across Europe to prepare for possible disruption to flight schedules by the end of the week.
“This is a very different situation to last April,” a spokesman for the centre said. “The weather is much more changeable and there’s a lot more uncertainty. There’s no risk of the ash moving across the UK in the next day or so. But there is a possibility that we’ll see some volcanic ash towards the end of the week.”
The EU Commission said the eruption of the Grimsvötn volcano could affect Irish and British airspace but said it was too early to tell whether the airspace over other European countries might be affected.
The unexpected threat to air travel was reflected in the decision of the White House to bring forward President Barack Obama’s departure from Ireland to Britain last night to avoid the ash plume.
As European regulators scrambled yesterday to avoid any repeat of the disruption last year which led to the cancellation of 100,000 flights in the wake of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption, the commission said the authorities were in a better position than a year ago to deal with the challenge.
“Volcanos don’t obey any rules and this is a situation that is evolving by the hour. What is clear however is that one year on, lessons have been learnt,” said transport commissioner Slim Kallas.
“As the situation evolves, this may still prove to be a very challenging week for passengers and the aviation sector, but there are new tools in place that allow for a more precise risk assessment to avoid, in so far as possible, closure of European airspace whilst ensuring safety.”
Thanks to a new approach adopted during the Eyjafjallajökull crisis to the assessment of the risk from volcanic eruptions, it is open to airlines themselves to decide if they fly in ash-contaminated areas on the basis of a safety risk assessment from national supervisors.
Although the commission says this is a “much more precise” way of avoiding the closure of airspace while ensuring safety, the spokeswoman for Mr Kallas said there was a clear possibility that Irish airspace could be affected.
The risk was also stressed by the Eurocontrol, the umbrella organisation for European flight control bodies. Regulators, airlines and airports held an emergency meeting yesterday to assess the threat from Grimsvötn.