Agreement on establishing North-South bodies and increasing the number of government ministers in the North is considered likely by the end of the month, and this will lead to renewed pressure on the IRA to begin the process of decommissioning its weapons.
The British Prime Minister arrived in Dublin last night after a day of intense discussions at Stormont with the parties from the new Assembly. While no breakthrough was achieved, Mr Blair stressed his determination to continue moving the negotiations forward.
Although there may have been few public indications of progress at Stormont, senior political sources were very confident last night that agreement would be finalised within two weeks on 10 new ministerial posts at Stormont, instead of the current six, and at least six new cross-Border implementation bodies.
When the continuing programme of prisoner releases, the reductions in patrolling and troop levels and the closure of security installations were also taken into consideration, one senior official said there would then be "a big deficit on the republican side".
This would bring renewed pressure, especially from Dublin, for the IRA to make a substantive gesture on decommissioning. Dublin sources said that in the absence of anything else, the unionist leadership was even "willing to take detonators".
In Dublin's view, a minimal gesture would remove the obstacles to republican membership of a new Northern executive and consequently the North-South Ministerial Council. However, reports of an IRA convention last weekend to discuss softening the movement's stance on decommissioning have been sharply denied by republicans and security sources on both sides of the Border said they were not aware of any such event.
Senior sources in the peace process are now taking for granted that North-South bodies will be established in six relatively non-controversial areas. Different lists are circulating, e.g. inland waterways, food safety, aqua-culture, marine research, tourist promotion, and transport planning.
There is believed to be a strong possibility of agreement on an additional North-South body to promote the Irish language. Unionists are said to be relaxed about such a proposal, but a senior SDLP figure is reported to have said that in a context where only a limited number of bodies could be achieved it would be a "waste" to accept one of a cultural rather than economic nature. However the proposal still remained "in play" on the basis that, as one source put it, "the Shinners have to get something."
The SDLP continues to push hard, sources said, to secure agreement for a cross-Border organisation to promote industrial development. There is also speculation about new bodies to oversee economic development and the disposal of European funds.
Tensions between the UUP and SDLP, which have been growing over recent weeks, came to the surface with conflicting comments on the negotiations from the First and Deputy First Ministers.
Mr Seamus Mallon warned that the political process could lose credibility unless the negotiations were completed by, at the latest, "very early next week".
This drew an apparent rebuke from Mr David Trimble, who said it was "not helpful" to generate a sense of crisis where none existed and to try setting "artificial deadlines". Later, Mr Trimble made light of the disagreement, pointing out that moments of tension between all the parties were inevitable. Earlier, speaking to reporters at Stormont, Mr Blair said: "The public want us to get on with it. They are frustrated at the lack of progress. They want progress to be made, and I hope over the next few days some proper signs of that progress will be shown."
He continued: "I will do everything I can to keep the momentum going forward, because I know that people out there are just desperate for this to work: they want the agreement, the whole agreement, and nothing but the agreement."
While he accepted all parties to the agreement wanted it to work, sometimes what he called "that little bit of help, that pushing along the way" was required.
He pledged to do all in his power to provide that extra momentum: "I will carry on pushing this all the way. I am going to keep on this very, very hard indeed over these coming days to get this thing done, to push it forward again."