Today's meeting between the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will launch another intensive negotiation designed to secure political agreement and permit fresh elections to a Northern Ireland assembly. Frank Millar, London Editor, reports
It was confirmed last night that Mr Ahern will follow up his talks with Mr Blair with a meeting in Dublin on Monday afternoon with the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble.
The intensification of pro-Belfast Agreement diplomacy comes amid signs of potential embarrassment for Mr Trimble in the Commons next week, with Conservative sources indicating they may join Mr Trimble's dissident MPs and the DUP in opposing the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC).
The proximity of today's Chequers meeting and Mr Ahern's planned discussions with Mr Trimble will add to the public sense of gathering momentum behind the push for assembly elections this autumn.
However, while Mr Trimble is not opposed "in principle" to a November or December poll, senior UUP sources have told The Irish Times that they regard the cessation of the paramilitary activities listed in last April's British-Irish Joint Declaration as "a virtual precondition" for elections leading to the restoration of the assembly and a power- sharing executive.
In the Commons on Wednesday Mr Trimble appeared to check the growing presumption in favour of an early poll when he described British demands for IRA "acts of completion" as "a euphemism" for complete decommissioning and "effective disbandment."
And one source said last night: "People are getting a bit carried away here. The Joint Declaration sets out what needs to be done if we are to have an election leading to a government. There is no question of 'Let's have an election come what may' about this [ongoing political dialogue] at all."
British sources say today's encounter between Mr Blair and Mr Ahern will not be decisive and that the hard work will begin after they share their assessment of their most recent discussions with Sinn Féin, and Mr Trimble's position following his comfortable defeat of Mr Jeffrey Donaldson at last Saturday's Ulster Unionist Council.
However, the growing impression in both capitals is that renewed tough talking by the UUP leadership actually signals that Mr Trimble would prefer to fight an election having concluded an agreement with Sinn Féin, even at the risk of formalising the split within his party.
That split was on display again yesterday in the House of Lords as Lord Kilclooney (formerly Mr John Taylor, Mr Trimble's deputy) opposed the creation of the IMC.
The British and Irish governments believe - as does the UUP leadership - that the establishment of the monitoring body is a significant achievement by Mr Trimble and can play an important role in reassuring unionists that paramilitarism is coming to an end as part of any deal to restore devolution.
However, Lord Kilclooney said it was "a slap in the face" for the police in Northern Ireland because it was not their advice the Secretary of State would act upon but the advice of a commission including two "foreigners" from the Republic and the United States.
Lord Glentoran, for the Conservatives, said the Bill was unacceptable as currently drafted because it would compromise the freedom of action of the Secretary of State, in that he could only act on the recommendations of the commission.
This contradicts Mr Trimble's assurance to his party that the exclusion power will be vested in the British government alone, and that its exercise could not ultimately be blocked by the need for cross-community support.