The British and Irish governments believe they will know by the middle of next month whether a power-sharing deal for Northern Ireland can be agreed by their November 24th deadline.
This became clear yesterday after Taoiseach Bertie Ahern met prime minister Tony Blair at his Chequers retreat to clear the way for at least two days of intensive talks with the political parties in the second week in October in Scotland.
While the talking is expected to continue thereafter in Belfast and London, there are indications that Mr Blair may choose the mid-October point to "tell it as it is" to both the parties and the general public.
With the end of his premiership drawing ever closer, well- informed Whitehall sources are stressing that Mr Blair wants an agreement "because it is the right thing" for Northern Ireland and not because he sees it as a so-called "legacy" issue. While refusing to predict the outcome of next month's talks, one source indicated that the negotiations would not be "strung out" for the sake of it, telling The Irish Times: "The prime minister is not going to pretend there's a deal on offer if there is not. Part of the luxury of his position is that he can tell it as it is."
Following yesterday's one- hour meeting between Mr Blair and Mr Ahern, official sources confirmed that the November 24th deadline still held because - with both the upcoming Irish election and a contest to elect Mr Blair's successor - "the official view in London and Dublin is that that is when the window of opportunity closes."
Asked if at their meeting on Wednesday Dr Ian Paisley had given Mr Blair any reason to think the DUP might take that "opportunity", the sources would only say that in their view "Dr Paisley is fully seized of the seriousness with which we are approaching it", while adding that "at the end of the day the decision is his".
DUP "modernisers" most committed to a devolution deal agree with Dr Paisley's assessment that the November deadline will not be met - while holding out the possibility of an agreement by next May ahead of scheduled fresh elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. However, indications of some internal DUP disagreement about how to deal with the vexed question of policing would seem to cast doubt on that prospect, while others close to the DUP leader openly admit their readiness to await the election of Mr Blair's successor.
The SDLP, meanwhile, has toughened its position on policing, indicating that failure to resolve the issue now will be part of the reason for any political failure come November. Speaking after yesterday's Blair/Ahern talks at Chequers, party leader Mark Durkan claimed there was "more muddle than method" in the British government's approach to the issue of restoring devolution.
Resuming his criticism of the British tendency to "side deals" with the principal parties, Mr Durkan insisted: "If we are going to have any chance of making progress, the governments need to put it up to the DUP to sign up to the political institutions without preconditions. And they need to put it up to Sinn Féin to sign up to policing, now and without preconditions."
Asked if Mr Durkan was in fact making Sinn Féin's endorsement of the PSNI a precondition for entering government, a senior SDLP source said: "It's not a formal precondition but a political reality. The reality is if it's not done they will share the responsibility for failure."
Later, after arriving in Cork, Mr Ahern warned the parties in Northern Ireland that it may take years to create another opportunity for a settlement if they failed to reach agreement on restoring the Northern Ireland Assembly by the November deadline.
"This is an opportunity that will not come back around for Northern Ireland again for a long, long time. Peter Hain has said it won't come around until the end of the decade, others have said it will take far, far more - I personally think it will take far, far more time."