Ahern hopeful, but not confident, of win

The Taoiseach last night expressed concern over whether the Nice Treaty would be approved after today's count, saying he was "…

The Taoiseach last night expressed concern over whether the Nice Treaty would be approved after today's count, saying he was "hopeful, not confident" of victory.

Campaigners against the Treaty expressed renewed hope of a win last night amid fears that yesterday saw the lowest turnout on record for an EU referendum.

Campaigners and observers predicted that the turnout would fall below 40 per cent, although in the past it has not been possible to predict final turnout with reliability. Mr Ahern told reporters in Dublin last night that he had expected the turnout to be around 35 per cent, and he would not be unhappy with this.

However, campaigners for a No vote were buoyed by predictions of a low turnout and said they believed they could win.

READ MORE

Voting was very slow yesterday morning but, as always, picked up substantially in the evening and was busier right up to the close of polling stations. Labour party sources last night predicted a turnout of 3545 per cent. Campaigners for a No vote predicted a figure as low as 35 per cent. This was echoed by some Government sources.

"On that figure we would be in there with a shout," said Mr Feargus Mac Aogain, secretary of the Peace and Neutrality Alliance, which campaigned against the treaty.

Mr Justin Barrett, spokesman for the No To Nice campaign, said he was reluctant to put a figure on the turnout but he believed it would be "shockingly low". People who had campaigned in the last abortion and divorce referendums all believed the turnout would be the lowest of recent referendum ballots, he said.

Some 71 per cent of voters turned out in the 1972 referendum on joining the EEC; 43.9 per cent voted in the 1987 Single European Act referendum; 57.3 per cent in the 1992 Maastricht Treaty ballot; and 56.2 per cent in 1998 on the Amsterdam Treaty. The count begins at 9 a.m. today. As ballot papers for all three referendums were placed in the same boxes, counting staff will have to sort them before counting begins.

The Nice Treaty referendum ballots will be counted first, with the returning officer hoping to be able to announce a result by 5 p.m. The referendum on the death penalty will be next and the International Criminal Court last. It was thought that counting could continue until midnight or later, but a low turnout would shorten that.

Ballots in each of the 41 Dail constituencies will be counted separately in 29 centres throughout the State. Results will be announced locally as soon as individual counts are complete, and they will be posted on the website www.referendum.com within minutes.

They will then be transmitted to the national results centre in the Custom House in Dublin where the national result will be collated and announced by Mr Peter Greene, a principal officer in the Department of the Environment, who has been appointed national returning officer for the referendums.