The Taoiseach has instigated intense speculation among his senior colleagues that he may call a general election in the autumn by suggesting that TDs and senators who favour one should make their case to him.
It emerged yesterday that Mr Ahern has now issued three invitations to colleagues to lobby him if they want a poll in September or October. While saying he still strongly favours holding the election in 2002, he told Fianna Fail Ministers and Ministers of State last Tuesday that if they thought differently, they should meet him privately to give their analysis.
This was a repeat of an invitation he issued to them immediately after the Nice Treaty referendum last month. However, he surprised his ministerial colleagues last Wednesday by issuing a similar invitation at a the weekly meeting of all party TDs and senators.
His raising of the prospect three times and placing it in the public domain, which he effectively did by telling his parliamentary party of close to 100 members this week, has served to raise speculation that could destabilise the Government and bring an election closer.
However, a spokesman for the Tanaiste said last night that her position was that the situation had not changed. "We are committed to running the full course. It's business as usual. Nothing has changed," he said.
A number of Fianna Fail Government sources argued last night that Mr Ahern was seeking to have the issue of an autumn election aired in order to close it off.
His comments are understood to be a response to arguments from a number of senior party figures in private in recent weeks in favour of an autumn poll. Well-placed sources argued last night that by announcing a consultation process, Mr Ahern was seeking to confirm what he knows: that the majority within Cabinet and within the party back his view.
"It's Bertie", according to one source. "He leads by consensus. He will be seen to get backing for his position and won't be blamed for anything."
There are what one source called some "very strong voices" in Cabinet arguing for an autumn election. However these, crucially, are understood not to include the three strongest figures: the Taoiseach, the Tanaiste and the Minister for Finance.
The arguments in favour of an autumn election include the difficulties to be faced in framing the budget due in December. With tensions having emerged in recent weeks between Ministers over Europe, some fear the forthcoming pre-budget negotiations between Ministers will be very difficult.
The reduction in the projected Government surplus as well as EU strictures against inflationary fiscal measures will lead to a very tough period of negotiation among Ministers in the autumn.
The Taoiseach and some Ministers are expected to argue for a "social inclusion" budget, concentrating tax cuts on the lower-paid, increasing welfare payments and improving services. Such changes are less inflationary than the tax cuts for those on higher incomes which Ms Harney and Mr McCreevy will want to add to the budgetary package.
Both Ms Harney and Mr McCreevy are understood to be determined that the Coalition will have a fifth budget in December and do not favour an autumn poll. Government sources who agree with this view argued last night that Fianna Fail was not ready for an election.
"The Nice Treaty and Tipperary South results show there are a lot of people out there not prepared to vote for us at the moment", said one. "We are publishing a national health strategy in September and a budget in December. We need to do these things to allow us to turn around public opinion."
Senior sources said that the "pro-autumn lobby" was stronger a month ago, before the outcome of the Nice poll, the Tipperary South by-election and the climbdown over the abolition of the dual mandate.