Mr Ahern's remarks yesterday morning that there would be "substantial changes" involving "some key ministries" have provoked a flurry of speculation that he is planning a major shake-up of his Cabinet team.
But the Taoiseach's idea of substantial change should be seen in relation to his very cautious approach to reshuffles in the past. For a man who - in opposition and in Government - has shuffled his team only when forced to, a resignation, two or three Ministers changing portfolios and the appointment of a new Cabinet member would indeed be substantial.
Nobody is betting against Mr Brian Cowen for Foreign Affairs. One senior Minister promised to "eat my hat" if he is not appointed. Another said simply: "It's a certainty." In a game where nothing is certain, this is as certain as it gets.
Mr Cowen may be missed by Mr Ahern at the centre of the heavyweight economic and social policy issues, but in handling Northern Ireland he will remain close to the Taoiseach and his Department, and will always have his ear.
Nobody is betting against Mr Micheal Martin moving from Education either. He is expected to end up with the complex Health portfolio. Sources close to him insist that this will be a great opportunity to prove himself in a difficult Department.
However, as the Minister with arguably the most positive public profile, he may improve the Government's image on health issues while risking disimproving his own image through handling unpopular decisions on the allocation of limited resources.
Yesterday Dr Michael Woods was being tipped strongly as the leading contender to replace Mr Martin in Education. Dr Woods, an unglamorous but solid and vastly experienced Minister, will therefore leave a vacancy in Marine.
This is most likely to be filled by the Cabinet newcomer, although Mr Ahern could conceivably make another move or two and put the new Minister into another job.
The newcomer is very likely to be either Mr Martin Cullen or Mr Frank Fahey. The Government Chief Whip, Mr Seamus Brennan, is to meet Mr Ahern this morning and is almost certain to be told that his role in dealing with the four independents who support the Government is too delicate for him to be shifted.
Mr Frank Fahey, currently dealing with policy relating to children, is seen as a very strong contender. He meets two important criteria: he is from a region under-represented in Cabinet (his constituency is Galway West) and he is well regarded by the Taoiseach.
Mr Ahern has said regional considerations will be important in his decision. So appointing someone from Connacht, which currently has no Cabinet Minister, is a strong possibility. If Mr Ahern decides to appoint from the west, Mr Fahey has the edge over fellow Galway Ministers of State Mr Eamon O Cuiv and Mr Noel Treacy.
But Mr Ahern could decide that it is the south-east region which needs Cabinet representation, in which case Mr Martin Cullen, currently Minister of State responsible for the Office of Public Works, would be elevated.
Mr Cullen is considered a very competent performer and is understood to have discussed his ambitions with Mr Ahern in the past few days. However, he will be passed over if Mr Ahern decides Connacht is his priority.
Mr Cullen could face objections from the Progressive Democrats, as he defected from that party to Fianna Fail amid considerable bad feeling. However, PD sources say that if Mr Ahern wants him, they will not attempt to impose a veto.
While several Ministers of State are anxiously awaiting news of promotion, another small group is wondering just as anxiously if it is to be dropped to make way for new blood.
Sources close to Mr Ahern have suggested that two Ministers of State may be "encouraged" to step down. These sources have said those invited to do so will be Ministers who intend to retire at the next election.
It is believed that Mr Ahern has asked some junior ministers in the last few days if they intend to retire, although it is not known what response he has got. Among the lower-profile and older Ministers of State who could be encouraged to step down are Dr Tom Moffatt (60), Mr Joe Jacob (60) and Mr Danny Wallace (57.)
However, none of these is known to consider his political career over just yet, and may feel aggrieved at suggestions that he quit now.
Mr Wallace, for example, performed a great electoral service for the party in 1997, bringing two newcomers into the Dail in Cork North Central along with himself. To suggest that he stand aside for one of those newcomers - Mr Billy Kelleher is tipped as a contender - would be seen as rough justice.
With one junior ministry becoming available with a promotion to Cabinet, getting two Ministers of State to go would allow Mr Ahern to promote three backbenchers to give his administration a fresh, younger look.
However, despite indications from some of those close to him that he will do this, again he may be cautious.
If it does happen, regional considerations may again come into play in choosing which backbenchers to promote. If Mr Ahern decides to recognise that election results in Dublin have a huge impact on the overall outcome, he could decide to promote either Mr Eoin Ryan, Ms Mary Hanafin, Mr Sean Ardagh, Mr Pat Carey or Ms Marion McGennis. Mr Billy Kelleher of Cork North Central is also mentioned in speculation.
The Cabinet shuffle is expected to be announced tomorrow, with the changes among junior ministers being postponed until next week.