Shares in Irish banks were mixed this morning as the markets digested the news of talks on a potential resuce package for Ireland, with AIB hardest hit.
Irish Life & Permanent saw its stock rise on the Dublin market, gaining 5.8 per cent to trade at 91 cent by 11am.
AIB suffered the most, falling 4.5 per cent to 38 cent. It subordinated notes tumbled this morning on speculation a bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund will impose losses on bondholders.
"The traditional role of the IMF is typically the one of the 'bad guy,'" said Philip Gisdakis, a Munich-based credit strategist at UniCredit SpA. It will "have negative implications for European banks, insurance companies and other institutional investors, which hold the bank debt in question", he said.
AIB's 12.5 per cent subordinated bonds due 2019 were quoted at a bid price of about 45 per cent of face value, according to Jefferies International in London, down from 100 per cent in September.
Credit-default swaps insuring €10 million of the debt cost €5.1 million in advance and €500,000 annually, according to CMA.
Central Bank governor Patrick Honohan said he expects the country to ask for aid from the European Union and the IMF worth "tens of billions" of euro to rescue the banks and stop contagion across the region.
Bank of Ireland was up 0.5 per cent to 40 cent. Credit-default swaps on the junior debt of Bank of Ireland cost €2.6 million in advance and €500,000 a year, signaling a 55.7 per cent likelihood of default within five years.
Contracts on Anglo Irish Bank's sub debt cost €7.9 million upfront, showing a 99.95 per cent probability of default.
Burden sharing "would have the obvious impact of hitting sentiment across the bank subordinated debt spectrum," Harpreet Parhar, a strategist at Credit Agricole SA, wrote in a note to investors.
The prospect of a bailout boosted confidence in the region's government debt, driving down the cost of default insurance.
Additional reporting: Bloomberg