THE GULF: International aid organisations are making contingency plans for a humanitarian crisis in the event of a war over Iraq and pre-positioning supplies in and around the region.
A confidential UN report disclosed last week predicted that 10 million Iraqis out of 26 million could be adversely affected by a conflict, including 100,000 direct and 400,000 indirect civilian casualties, two million displaced within the country and 900,000 external refugees.
Planning began last autumn at the headquarters of major aid agencies.
A minimum of food aid was calculated and sent to the region. Amman, the logistical base for a number of organisations, soon became involved since the current overland route for most supplies runs from Jordan's Red Sea port of Aqaba to Baghdad. But these agencies cannot count on sending supplies by lorry along this 1,400km route if there is a war.
Consequently, "flexibility" is the byword for aid providers, an authoritative source told The Irish Times. He said supplies have been sent to Kuwait, Syria and Iran, but could not assess volume, which "changes every day".
The objective of the agencies is to have enough food, blankets, tents and medications pre-positioned round Iraq to provide victims of any conflict with aid until a steady flow of assistance can be provided.
An operational structure must also be established and people brought in to manage programmes.
Non-governmental aid agencies based here, which co-operate with UN relief bodies and the Jordanian authorities, have already begun to bring in additional staff who will remain in place during any crisis as UN expatriates will be withdrawn.
During and after the 1991 war, Jordan's population increased by 15 per cent due to the flow into the country of temporary and permanent refugees.
Although the kingdom was promised compensation for providing them with shelter and other assistance, none was received. As a result, Jordan insists that "there must be money in the bank" before any relief programmes are initiated.
Refugees are likely to be accommodated in camps on the Iraqi side of the frontier or in no-man's-land, said a second source. "If the conflict is protracted or followed by civil strife, the job of the relief agencies will become all the more complicated and difficult," he said. "There is a possibility that the entire region could be engulfed in warfare."
Aid agencies have been obliged to keep their contingency arrangements quiet so they cannot be accused of supporting a war a majority of Arabs expect but do not want.
In the first independent poll conducted in the region, 58 per cent of Jordanians said the US would attack Iraq and 61 per cent of this group believe Washington will go ahead without a UN mandate.
