IRELAND v NEW ZEALAND:SPORT'S PLACE as a magnificent irrelevance has rarely been more evident, but 80 minutes or so of magnificent irrelevancy could do nicely this evening. Or then again, could it? With the overwhelming weight of history and form in mind, one can rarely recall a more foreboding mood among Irish supporters, who clearly expect the magnificence to be black.
It’s been a while since Ireland went into a home game as 8 to 1 or 15-point underdogs, yet – this not being a time for fanciful punts – what spare change has been invested on this encounter appears to have been loaded onto the almighty All Blacks.
A thrashing akin to the last meeting, or even a bloodless coup like a year ago, would make the homecoming month virtually a write-off and the Aviva Stadium synonymous with rip-off Ireland.
In the circumstances, a win would be remarkable, but, failing that, Irish rugby could certainly do with a restorative performance.
A sense of occasion would help too. These players deserve that much and, eh, helpfully, the best team and biggest draw in the world are in town. While the IRFU cannot give any indication as to how many tickets have been sold – fewer than 300 remain in their offices today – anecdotal evidence points to a crowd of 45,000-plus.
Come the haka and a 5.30pm kick-off and, at last, the Lansdowne Library might resemble a Test arena.
In addition to the Declan Kidney factor, which still applies, Ireland are in the place where, historically, they are often at their best: underdogs. Like Buster Douglas stepping into the ring with Mike Tyson, fear will be a powerful spur and, as Rory Best observed yesterday, that may be no bad thing.
“It can take you to places that you didn’t think your body can take you.”
The first 20 minutes will tell us much. Ireland need to be within a score to retain their desire for the collisions, as confidence appears to be an issue. Were the All Blacks to settle into their flowing stride, there’s no better front-running side and, like the shell-shocked Scots last week, Ireland don’t look equipped mentally or technically for playing catch-up.
The Black defence is superb too, so Ireland need to emulate England’s more aggressive second-half effort by pushing up in a hard line and not, as they did in the first-half, jaggedly and with shooters, or else Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith will shred Ireland.
Ireland could also take a leaf out of Munster’s manual and simply tear into them from the start, especially at the breakdown, and rattle their cage. Here, Brad Thorn’s absence could actually be more keenly felt than in the lineout, for he probably hits more rucks and more efficiently than anyone else.
Although Richie McCaw remains the king of the breakdown, Stephen Ferris, David Wallace (who in latter years usually goes well against the All Blacks) and Jamie Heaslip can help give more intensity to Ireland’s work there.
Indeed, after his red card against McCaw and Co in June, it would be no surprise if Heaslip scales the heights of his highly charged revenge mission against the Boks a year ago.
The bigger concern is the tight five. Ireland desperately miss Paul O’Connell, and continue to overlook Leo Cullen. But the absence of Ali Williams and now Thorn has left the All Blacks with a new lock combination. Thus, they shouldn’t be as competitive on the Irish throw, and if Gert Smal and his on-field lieutenants, Best, Mick O’Driscoll and Donncha O’Callaghan, haven’t come up with something better two weeks on it would be very disappointing.
With the weather set fairer than the previous two Saturdays – mostly cloudy and dry, with moderate breezes – unless Alan Gaffney was playing double bluff Ireland are set to have a go.
“We want to play an attacking brand of rugby,” the Australian said. “That’s the brand Declan wants to play, the players are totally behind it and there’s no reason we can’t do it.
“There’s no point in trying not to lose it because if you do that you’re going to get bashed.”
Jonathan Sexton will have been itching for this one and gives the All Blacks something different to cope with, though Eoin Reddan needs to sharpen his service on his 30th birthday.
Maybe, too, Ireland have kept a few first-phase moves up their sleeve. One certainly hopes so.
Ultimately, though, even if Ireland do improve in the set-pieces and at the breakdown, the All Blacks have a greater clarity and simplicity to their game, borne out of superior footwork and skill going into contact and in using the full width of the pitch regardless of which number is handling the ball.
That said, whereas the Irish artisans have been carrying too much lately and the artists less so, with the All Blacks it’s the other way round.
They also work far harder off the ball and Mils Muliaina and Co back themselves to run from anywhere. So, as in the meeting last June, you’d have to think that the quicker ball which these All Blacks generate and their infinitely more developed ability to attack off turnovers, quick throws, quick taps and counter-attacks will count, sooner or later.
And failing that, as in most of their times of crises, McCaw can come up with one or two of his big plays or the imperious Carter can open his box of tricks.
NEW ZEALAND :15 Mils Muliaina (Chiefs) 14 Corey Jane (Hurricanes) 13 Conrad Smith (Hurricanes) 12 Ma'a Nonu (Hurricanes) 11 Hosea Gear (Hurricanes) 10 Dan Carter (Crusaders) 9 Andy Ellis (Crusaders) 1 Tony Woodcock (Blues) 2 Hika Elliot (Hawkes Bay) 3 Owen Franks (Crusaders) 4 Anthony Boric (Blues) 5 Tom Donnelly (Highlanders) 6 Jerome Kaino (Blues) 7 Richie McCaw (Crusaders) 8 Kieran Read (Crusaders) Replacements : A Hore (Hurricanes), J Afoa (Blues), S Whitelock (Crusaders), L Messam (Chiefs), A Mathewson (Hurricanes), S Donald (Chiefs), S Williams (Crusaders)
IRELAND:15 (Leinster) Rob Kearney 14 (Ospreys) Tommy Bowe 13 (Leinster (capt) Brian O'Driscoll 12 (Leinster) Gordon D'Arcy 11 (Leinster) Luke Fitzgerald 10 (Leinster) Jonathan Sexton 9 (Leinster) Eoin Reddan 1 (Leinster) Cian Healy 2 (Ulster) Rory Best 3 (Ulster) Tom Court 4 (Munster) Donncha O'Callaghan 5 (Munster) Mick O'Driscoll 6 (Ulster) Stephen Ferris 7 (Munster) David Wallace 8 (Leinster) Jamie Heaslip Replacements : S Cronin (Connacht), J Hayes (Munster), D Toner Leinster), D Leamy (Munster), Stringer (Munster), R O'Gara (Munster), K Earls (Munster)
Referee:M Jonker (Rsa). Touch judges: C Joubert (Rsa), C Damasco (Ita).
HEAD-TO-HEAD :Played 23, Ireland 0 wins, 1 draw, New Zealand 22 wins.
LAST FIVE :(2010) New Zealand 66 Ireland 28 (New Plymouth); ('08) Ireland 3 New Zealand 22 (Dublin); New Zealand 21 Ireland 11 (Wellington); ('06) New Zealand 27 Ireland 17 (Auckland); New Zealand 34 Ireland 23 (Hamilton).
BETTING : 8/1 Ireland, 28/1 draw, 1/14 New Zealand. Handicap (Ireland +15 pts) 10/11 Ireland, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 New Zealand.
Forecast : All Blacks to win.