As the Dβil rose yesterday for the six-week Christmas recess, there was increasing confidence among the members of the Coalition that it would be returned to power in next year's general election. This would be the first time since 1969 that an outgoing government has come back in its entirety. But then, it will likely be the first Government since de Valera's (of June 1938 to June 1943, the Emergency years), to run the full five-year course.
Government confidence rests on economic success, the huge drop in unemployment, peace in the North and the general well-being and stability of the past four and a half years. The current downturn in the economy is viewed as almost positive, in the sense that in times of uncertainty the electorate tends to stick with what it knows rather than change direction. The Government also believes that independent, single-issue and extreme candidates will fare less well than polls now indicate.
Further confidence comes from the FF/PD view of the Opposition as ineffectual. For evidence, they point to the opinion polls in which neither Michael Noonan nor Ruair∅ Quinn is making any great progress.
The Opposition, of course, thinks differently. It believes the electorate sees the Government's health, housing, childcare and transport policies as a total failure and will vote accordingly. It accuses the coalition of having squandered the proceeds of the boom years and of raiding State funds to produce "a phoney budget". By-elections, FG and Labour maintain, are more proof that the Government will not be returned to power.
The odds, however, are still on a Fianna Fβil/Labour coalition, although both parties would prefer it otherwise. Despite this week's controversy over Quinn's use of the "b" word, and increasingly vocal views in Labour against coalition with the old enemy, it is the most likely combination capable of reaching the magic 84 seats, and neither old rows nor ideological differences will stop them if the numbers are right.
Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney would like to renew their partnership and Noonan and Quinn would like to form one - but all will deal.