The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll gives us every reason to believe the 2007 general election will be a fight to the bitter end, writes Damian Loscher, Managing Director TNS mrbi
Interviewing for this latest poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, a little more than two weeks away from polling day on May 24th. The election may seem imminent, but two weeks is a long time in election politics. Between now and polling day, the heightened intensity of political activity will shape and shift the preferences of all but the most loyal party supporters.
In marked contrast to the period immediately preceding the 2002 general election, when support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael struggled to move outside a narrow range, the performances of all parties in the run-up to this election have waxed and waned quite dramatically.
If such volatility can be interpreted as a sign of indecisiveness on the part of the electorate, it would be reasonable to conclude that voters are more open now to considering an alternative government than at any time in the past 10 years.
With an increase of two points to 36 per cent of first-preference votes, Fianna Fáil will be much relieved. Revelations about the finances surrounding the Taoiseach's rental and subsequent purchase of his Drumcondra home have not obviously damaged party support.
On the contrary, it could be argued that Fianna Fáil may have benefited from the controversy. Bertie Ahern's appeal lies in his ability to connect with voters at a personal level and any portrayal of the Taoiseach as human will serve to strengthen this connection. The decision by the Opposition leaders not to press Ahern for answers did not defuse the situation and only left the stage wide open for Ahern to play out his role of victim.
It would be a mistake, however, to assume Fianna Fáil's gain is attributable solely to the attention given by the media to the Taoiseach's personal finances.
Also of relevance is the finding that satisfaction with the Government has moved up four points to 47 per cent, perhaps indicating other factors are at play, such as the successful establishment of devolved government in Northern Ireland, the timing of which coincided with interviewing for this latest poll.
Although Fianna Fáil has reversed the downward trend of recent polls, the party will be concerned that its share of first-preference votes remains some way adrift of the 42 per cent achieved in 2002. With the PDs on just 2 per cent, it appears very unlikely that the current Government will be returned.
In the Opposition camp, Fine Gael will be disappointed that the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows the gap between the two main parties has widened. However, the momentum which had brought Fine Gael to within a whisker of Fianna Fáil in late April has not been lost.
With 28 per cent of first-preference votes, the underlying trend for Fine Gael remains positive and the party is in a much stronger position now than it was prior to the 2002 general election. Significant seat gains can be expected on election day.
Satisfaction with Enda Kenny is up six points to 47 per cent, placing Fine Gael in a much stronger position should this election be decided on personalities and not policies. That said, satisfaction with Ahern has also increased, albeit marginally, to 54 per cent, consolidating his position as the most popular party leader.
There is good news for the alternative government in Labour's poll performance. An increase of three points to 13 per cent for Labour means the alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour attracts 41 per cent of first-preference votes, more than the 38 per cent commanded by the current Coalition, although neither combination has the level of voter support needed to form a new government. If these four parties were the only parties to enter into negotiations, based on this poll, Fianna Fáil and Labour would be the only pairing likely to achieve enough support to make it over the line.
Further good news for Labour comes in the form of an increase in satisfaction with Pat Rabbitte's performance, up two points to 50 per cent, although not enough to match the 54 per cent satisfaction rating enjoyed by Ahern.
At 2 per cent, the PDs will be looking for a silver bullet. The idea that the PDs are needed in Government to keep Fianna Fáil honest or that the PDs are required to ensure continued economic success may no longer resonate with voters. The challenge for Michael McDowell will be to find a new message, one that engages and excites the voters. Fresh thinking has been lacking thus far in the campaign, presenting the PDs with an open invitation to show vision and purpose.
Support for the Green Party is down one point to 5 per cent. The Green Party could struggle to make significant gains over the coming weeks as the focus of the election shifts to issues, such as health, education and crime, which do not play to the Green Party's strengths.
If the other parties perform as today's poll indicates, Trevor Sargent and his team will need to at least maintain the current level of support in order to secure a place at the negotiating table.
At 10 per cent, Sinn Féin's share of first-preference votes is unchanged. In the event that Labour rule out going into government with Fianna Fáil, it is conceivable that this significant bloc of Sinn Féin seats will be needed to form a government. Publicly, the main parties are reluctant to discuss the possibility of joining forces with Sinn Féin. If it comes down to a choice between working with Sinn Féin and five years on the Opposition benches, compromises may have to be made.
Interestingly, Gerry Adams, with a personal satisfaction rating of 51 per cent, is the next most popular party leader to Ahern, a fact which may feature in post-election discussions.
Based on today's poll, Independent candidates can expect to attract collectively 6 per cent of the vote, a relatively low figure by historical standards. But with the election so finely balanced, the role of Independent candidates could prove pivotal.
With two weeks to go before polling day, voters have already begun to make up their minds, with just 15 per cent of voters undecided.
However, the outcome of the May 24th election will be dictated by shifts in voting intentions that have yet to emerge. Whether these shifts will be influenced more by messages from the political parties or the mood of the voters is open to debate.
Arguably, the pledges from the main parties - more gardaí, better health service, lower taxes, stamp duty reform - are not sufficiently differentiated to suggest this campaign will be won or lost on the hard issues.
Instead, the softer issues of character, energy, ambition and confidence will define the campaign. In this context, the scheduled television debate between Ahern and Kenny may yet prove decisive.