All kinds of everything in opposition to Nice Treaty

In the good old, bad old days when Section 31 of the Broadcasting Act was being used against Sinn Fein, and journalists used …

In the good old, bad old days when Section 31 of the Broadcasting Act was being used against Sinn Fein, and journalists used to take part in street protests against the directive, a distinguished practitioner of our craft announced at a meeting that he was not going to march around "with the ragtag and bobtail of the town".

This was a most unfair and inaccurate description of an honourable and even courageous section of the community which took a stand against a counter-productive and reactionary piece of legislation. But fine people though many of them were, their ranks included few members of the political establishment. They ranged from the farthest edges of the political spectrum to the more socially aware academics.

The informal coalition against the Nice Treaty is a bit like that. By no means a "ragtag and bobtail", it nevertheless constitutes an array of diverse and in some ways contradictory elements who are all united around the single word "No". It was much the same in Denmark when participation in the European single currency was rejected in a referendum last September. Even opponents of the Nice Treaty I spoke to conceded privately that they would probably lose in the referendum next Thursday, but the report from the canvass on both sides is that it could be close.

Even if, as expected, the treaty goes through, the implications of a substantial No vote deserve to be carefully studied. For example, what will it say about our politicians if there is a sizeable percentage opposed to Nice? This referendum has been notable for two things: (1) the near-monolithic support in the political establishment for a Yes vote; and (2) the relatively low level of activity on the ground in support of a Yes vote.

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Europe is the new Prozac, it seems. I have written already about the poor media turnout for most of the Nice press conferences, a theme echoed in tones of pure astonishment yesterday by leading Eurosceptic Anthony Coughlan when he hosted a gathering of prominent critics of the EU from as far away as Finland and Slovenia which included a former prime minister of Malta, Dr K.M. Bonnici.

Something is rotten in the state of Ireland. And, if you met Napper Tandy, once the usual handshakes had been gone through, the news would be even worse than before. She's the most distressful country that there has ever been; her future's in the balance with a treaty few have seen.

The unpredictable factor in the referendum is the impact of the Sinn Fein campaign. Fianna Fail people speak quietly and in fatalistic tones about the prevalence of Sinn Fein posters urging a No vote. Then there is the Peace and Neutrality Alliance, the No to Nice Campaign and the Green Party, to name but a few. There are reported to be 11 different types of No posters in the Taoiseach's own constituency of Dublin Central.

There is also a school of thought - wishful perhaps - that Sinn Fein's high profile on the No side will persuade many voters to support the treaty. Either way, the referendum is acting as a dry run for Sinn Fein's general election campaign, which could have a significant effect not just on politics in the Republic, but on the Northern peace process. Some people must be looking back wistfully to the days of Section 31.

A Green Party activist told me of his delight at the way comments by European leaders such as Lionel Jospin, Romano Prodi and Frits Bolkestein were playing into the hands of the No campaign. Don't they know there's a war on?