CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Laois-Offaly: It is war to the knife in Laois-Offaly, writes Conor Brady
It is war to the knife between Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats in Laois-Offaly. The main question in this key five-seater constituency appears to be whether the former IFA president, Tom Parlon, will take the third Fianna Fáil seat, displacing either Deputy Seán Moloney or Deputy John Fleming.
When Tom Parlon was nominated on behalf of the PDs there was early speculation that he posed a threat to Fine Gael's Olwyn Enright, who aims to take the seat held by her father, Tom Enright, who is retiring from politics. Parlon's base is in the southern end of the constituency, where the largest town is Birr. Although he temporarily lost his seat (to Labour's Pat Gallagher) in 1992, Tom Enright has been the undisputed monarch of politics in Birr and south Offaly for more than 30 years.
There is intense loyalty to Tom Enright and Olwyn is proving a skilled performer on the canvass. The Offaly Fine Gael seat looks secure. So, too, does the Laois Fine Gael seat, held by Deputy Charlie Flanagan, son of the legendary Oliver J.
Thus if Tom Parlon is to sit in the 29th Dáil he must dislodge one of the three sitting Fianna Fáil deputies. The strongman of the Fianna Fáil organisation is Brian Cowen, Minister for Foreign Affairs and son of the late Ber Cowen TD. Cowen's base in centred on Tullamore and north Offaly, but as a senior Cabinet Minister he is, naturally, a power throughout the constituency. He is also a superb campaigner and vote manager. In 1997 he led the Fianna Fáil team to an impressive 49.85 per cent share of the vote. This time his task will be to micro-manage the transfers to ensure that he brings his two fellow TDs back to Dáil Éireann with him on June 6th.
It will not be easy. Tom Parlon is popular and is running an intensive and professionalised campaign. He will be counting on a strong farming vote right across the constituency and he is concentrating on the area around Portarlington where Cathy Honan had built up a significant Progressive Democrat base, polling almost 3,800 first preferences in 1997.
Fianna Fáil recognises the Parlon threat. The word to supporters is to mark ballot papers for party candidates 1, 2, 3, 4 and then stop. There are to be no Fianna Fáil transfers to Parlon. But it remains to be seen how tightly the party can impose this discipline and there is a general expectation that Parlon and either Fianna Fáil's Fleming or Moloney will be fighting for the fifth and final seat.
Laois-Offaly is a constituency of contrasts. Tullamore and Portlaoise are burgeoning business towns and are developing, in effect, into economic satellites of the greater Dublin area. The towns have their problems, of course. Tullamore has been hit by a series of recent job losses and Portlaoise appears to have a worrying drugs scene.
But in the overall these bigger, urban areas are thriving. Meanwhile, the smaller towns and villages are finding it increasingly difficult to retain traditional services, and job opportunities are few.
The ESB, Bord na Móna and forestry are especially important to the economic life of this constituency. Uncertainty over the future of the State-owned utilities is an issue. (Tom Parlon will not be helped by the PDs' policy proposal to sell off the ESB.)
The constituency comes in at or near the bottom of most national economic indices. Per capita income is the lowest in the State. So, too, are participation rates in third-level education.
The Celtic Tiger may have a natural habitat in the larger towns but he is not a familiar species throughout much of rural Laois and Offaly.
There is some resentment against Fianna Fáil and in particular against Brian Cowen for failing to make up ground economically for the constituency.
There is a tradition of a floating vote in the constituency, the fifth seat having been held by Labour's Pat Gallagher as recently as 1997. Labour, the Green Party, Sinn Féin and five Independent candidates will be early eliminations. Fianna Fáil first preferences in the Tullamore area will suffer some impact from the campaign of local councillor Molly Buckley, who is running as a health and social services candidate. At the end of the day, however, it is likely that most of Buckley's votes will transfer back along traditional party lines. Such is Cowen's standing and popularity and, given Fianna Fáil's favourable tide in the polls, he may not be unduly worried.
Prediction: FF 3, FG 2. No change.