The attack in Mombasa synchronised with an attempt to bring down an aircraft to Tel Aviv bears the hallmarks of al-Qaeda, writes LaraMarlowe.
The anti-Israeli attacks near Mombasa on Thursday bear the hallmarks of recent operations attributed to Osama bin Laden's al- Qaeda network.
The method of the destruction of the Paradise Hotel (15 dead, including three Israelis): a vehicle loaded with explosives driven by a suicide bomber and the "soft" target - not an embassy or military base but tourists - were the same as those chosen in Djerba, Tunisia, (21 dead) on April 11th and in Bali on October 12th (about 200 dead).
The Mombasa attack also closely resembled the suicide bombing of a bus carrying French defence industry workers in front of the Sheraton Hotel in Karachi in May (14 dead).
Suspicions of al-Qaeda involvement are strengthened by recent history. Mohamed Atef, the al- Qaeda military chief killed in last year's bombardment of Afghanistan, planned the twin bombings on August 7th, 1998, of the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es- Salaam (224 dead).
Synchronised attacks - on Thursday, missiles were fired on the Israeli aircraft minutes before the Israeli-owned hotel was blown up - are another signature of al- Qaeda.
The only new element on Thursday - an extremely disquieting one for civil aviation the world over - was the use of two surface-to-air-missiles against a Boeing 757 belonging to the Israeli airline Arkia.
Kenyan police sources told Libération they found the launcher for a Russian-designed SAM 7 Strela near the Mombasa runway.
This small hand-held missile, designed in the 1970s, was produced by the thousands. Pakistan manufactures them under the name Anza and Egypt makes SAMs called Ayn-as-Saqa.
Washington sent hundreds of similar heat-seeking Stingers to Afghanistan to help the Mujaheddin fight the Soviets - before the Muslim fighters transmogrified into Taliban and al-Qaeda and began fighting the West.
As a result, much of the Middle East, Horn of Africa and Central Asia are awash with relatively cheap SAMs capable of bringing down passenger airliners. That 261 passengers were spared on Thursday is miraculous, since the missiles home in on the heat of jet engines.
One passenger saw a missile fly a metre above the aircraft wing.
There is wide speculation that the Israeli aircraft may have been equipped with a SAM detection and evasion device. Israel is a leader in military electronics and although such devices are usually reserved for military aircraft, it is possible that Israeli civilian aircraft are also equipped with them.
The testimony of Mr Peter Wambobo, a Kenyan taxi driver at Mombasa airport interviewed by Le Monde, strengthens this theory. He saw the aircraft lean to one side. "I saw a flash come from the ground, about 200 metres from the runway," Mr Wambobo said.
"It brushed the plane on the left. The plane turned again quickly, as if it wanted to avoid it, and it rose in the sky."
Investigators believe the attack on the French in Karachi may have been carried out by Lashkar-e- Taiba, a Pakistani fundamentalist group which is fighting the Indians in Kashmir. Likewise, the men who carried out the atrocity in Bali are believed to have had the support of a local network called Jemaah Islamiyah, whose spiritual leader, Abu Bakr Bashir, has been imprisoned by Indonesian police.
The attacks in Mombasa may follow the same pattern of al- Qaeda "sub-contracting" to local movements which support it.
"Only radical Sunni networks close to al-Qaeda have enough control in the region of Mombasa to be able to plan such attacks," says Mr Guillaume Dasquié, a leading French expert on al-Qaeda and the publisher of Intelligence Online. "No one else is as well implanted in the region and has radical goals that would lead them to carry out such actions."
A newsletter published by Mr Dasquié yesterday identifies Sheik Ali Shee, originally from Yemen and a supporter of bin Laden, as the leader of radical Muslims in Kenya. Sheikh Ali heads the Council of Imams and Preachers of Kenya and his followers include expatriate Yemenis, Sudanese and Somalis.
In an October 2001 interview with Kenyan television, Mr Dasquié says, Sheikh Ali supported the Taliban and criticised President Daniel Arap Moi's co-operation with the US. Two months ago, he reportedly incited anti-American street demonstrations.
However, experts are sceptical about attempts by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, to link the shoot-out at a Likud party office in Israel, in which six people were killed by Palestinian gunmen, with the attacks in Kenya.