Conducted on January 29th and 30th among a representative sample of 1,000 electors across more than 100 locations throughout the Republic, the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll provides a snapshot of voting intentions at this very early stage in the 2007 election campaign, writes Damian Loscher, Managing Director of TNSmrbi
Thus far in 2007, the election debate has been shaped more by posturing than by policies. Having lost significant ground in the polls in late 2006, it was inevitable that Labour would attempt to inject some energy into their campaign in early 2007.
If success is measured in airtime or newsprint, Labour has succeeded in putting its party on the radar.
Pat Rabbitte managed to monopolise the media for an entire week by simply refusing to rule out going into government with Fianna Fáil.
By dangling the possibility of a Fianna Fáil/Labour government in front of voters, the Labour leader has completely reframed the coalition debate, giving voters the permission to consider other combinations.
All of a sudden, the possibilities are endless. Who knows what type of meat voters will want in their sandwich come election day?
For Fianna Fáil, a drop in today's poll of three points to 37 per cent of first preference votes must surely be surprising and disappointing. It would have been reasonable to expect that an ambitious, if somewhat familiar, National Development Plan would have been enough to convince the electorate of Fianna Fáil's capacity to deliver on social and economic issues.
And maybe the National Development Plan would have been enough to consolidate Fianna Fáil's November 2006 poll performance had respondents for today's poll been interviewed a few days earlier. As it happened, at the time of interviewing, potential job losses at the Motorola facility in Cork were dominating the headlines. The veneer of prosperity had been scratched and the Government's failure to tackle inflation and declining competitiveness had been exposed.
If there is a speed bump on the road to success for Fianna Fáil in the 2007 general election, it is the economy. Even generous budgets and SSIA windfalls will not protect the Government from further bad news on the jobs front.
In line with the drop in support for Fianna Fáil, satisfaction with the Government (at 48 per cent) and with Bertie Ahern (at 56 per cent) have also weakened, although absolute levels of satisfaction remain high by historical standards and Ahern continues to attract the highest satisfaction rating of any party leader.
With just 1 per cent of first preference votes, support for the PDs is at its lowest level since the party featured for the first time in an Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll in 1986. Even allowing for the fact that poll ratings for the PDs are likely to fluctuate, given the party's concentration on a limited number of constituencies, a repeat of this performance at election time would substantially lessen their attractiveness as potential government partners.
The extremely favourable seat bonus that Fianna Fáil could expect would not be enough to bridge the gap between the current level of combined support for Fianna Fáil and the PDs and the 84 seats needed to form a new government.
On a more positive note for the PDs, satisfaction with Michael McDowell as party leader has increased six points to 44 per cent. Which raises the question, is health the concrete block tied to the PD vote? The lack of public and political support for health service reforms will make it very difficult for Mary Harney and the PDs to turn this tanker around in time for the election.
At 26 per cent of first preference votes, Fine Gael has leaked one point since the November 2006 poll.
Enda Kenny may have wished for a slightly higher poll rating, but he is likely to take much comfort from the news that the alternative government is alive and well, while at the same time not ignoring the fact that the fall in support for Fianna Fáil and the PDs has also created the space for other coalition options to grow.
Opening the debate on immigration has not benefited Kenny's personal rating (down two points to 41 per cent), although opening the debate is not the same as leading the debate.
More importantly, it has shown how the Fine Gael leader can turn his innocuousness, which is often seen to be a political liability, to his advantage when addressing sensitive topics.
For many readers, this latest poll will be seen as a referendum on the effectiveness of Pat Rabbitte's teaser campaign. On this point, the findings are inconclusive.
Rabbitte's personal satisfaction rating edged ahead by one point to 47 per cent, but Labour is still showing at 11 per cent of first preference votes.
Perhaps the real effects of Rabbitte's hedge strategy have been felt by the PDs.
The Green Party will take most encouragement from today's poll results. Support has jumped to 8 per cent, which places the Greens on a strong national footing and ahead of Labour in Dublin, where alternative transport solutions are eagerly sought.
As the environment is unlikely to fall off the political agenda, the Green Party presents yet another viable coalition option, if the necessary compromises can be made. The lack of real progress in Northern Ireland in recent times has acted as a drag on the Sinn Féin vote, which dropped to 7 per cent of first preferences in November 2006.
The recent decision by Sinn Féin members to support policing, coming as it did immediately prior to polling, has likely played an important role in reversing this trend and adding two points to the party's poll ratings. The leadership shown by Gerry Adams is also reflected in the poll results. Adams's personal satisfaction rating has climbed to 50 per cent, behind Ahern's (at 56 per cent) on this measure.
With 9 per cent of first preference votes and enhanced credibility amongst the wider electorate, Sinn Féin may have turned a corner. Whether it has come far enough to be accepted as partners in government with Fianna Fáil is for others to decide.
How events unfold in the weeks and months ahead will be fascinating to watch. Every party must be excited or energised at some level by these poll findings. Let's just hope that policy debate does not take a back seat to political flirting, or that political parties say and do nothing for fear of saying or doing the wrong thing.