The last Irish Times/TNSmrbi poll was conducted in January of this year in the aftermath of the 2006 budget and amongst a plethora of upbeat economic forecasts for the year ahead. The results indicated a significant increase in support for the Government in general, and Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil in particular.
Fine Gael and Labour nevertheless performed reasonably well, with their combined party support of 40 per cent matching that of Fianna Fáil and the PDs.
Fieldwork for today's survey was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week. News stories which dominated the media on these days included the unofficial Iarnród Éireann dispute that crippled rail services to the south and west.
A Prime Time special on Monday night highlighted the continuing deficiencies in Accident & Emergency departments around the country. There was also extensive media coverage of a report commissioned by the Health Service Executive which found that the A&E unit at the Mater hospital is too small to deal with the number of patients attending.
Meanwhile, discussion of the party leader's speech at the Fine Gael Ardfheis held on May 5th and 6th continued. It is true to say that any ardfheis will energise the party faithful and strike a chord with those undecideds inclined towards that party.
It is also fair to say, however, that much of the press commentary made in relation to this year's Fine Gael conference was critical of certain aspects of Enda Kenny's speech. In particular, his policy statements regarding crime and health were described by some as too vague, and pandering to public opinion for the sake of it.
It is within this context, therefore, that today's poll findings were gathered. As can be seen from Tables I to III, the results make grim reading for Fianna Fáil, and the Government in general. Satisfaction with the Government is down six points since January, while Mr Ahern's rating as Taoiseach has dropped four.
With a small majority (54 per cent) expressly dissatisfied with Mary Harney's performance as Tánaiste, her personal satisfaction rating now stands at its lowest level ever. Of particular concern to the Coalition leaders will be their personal and combined Government ratings in the key Dublin area. Support for the Government is, for example, just 35 per cent in the capital, where twice as many voters (61 per cent) are dissatisfied with Mary Harney as are satisfied.
Turning to adjusted party support levels, Fianna Fáil is now polling a full 11 percentage points lower than its share of the first-preference vote in the last general election. An actual election showing of 31 per cent would result in the party losing at least 20 Dáil seats, and perhaps more depending on transfer patterns. Party support is lowest in Dublin, and among males and those aged 50 years or younger.
There is no doubt the party is suffering from a lack of public confidence in this Government's ability to deliver on efficient public services. In addition to the health and transport services issues highlighted earlier this week, the Government's credibility is likely to have been further undermined by the Taoiseach's apparent rowing back on the schedule for decentralisation of civil servants around the country.
There may be some in Fianna Fáil who had hoped that assigning the two most difficult ministerial portfolios to the Progressive Democrats would deflect serious criticism from Fianna Fáil. Today's survey indicates that any blame in this regard is being apportioned to both Government parties. At a consistent core vote of just 3 per cent for the PDs, however, it is the senior Government partner which has most to lose come election day.
We do not need to be reminded, of course, that the election is still a year away, and much is likely to transpire over that period to influence the mood of the electorate.
As bleak as the situation may seem today, Fianna Fáil still holds an ace up its sleeve, in that the economy continues to power ahead. A Bank of Ireland report released on Monday forecast 6 per cent economic growth for 2006, and a further 6 per cent in 2007. A booming global economy and the release of SSIA funds at a local level seem set to more than compensate for any negative effects rising eurozone interest rates may have on the economy.
Today's poll rating of 28 per cent is Fine Gael's highest since January 2000, at the height of that period's planning tribunal revelations.
If maintained on polling day next year, the party would stand to gain in the region of 15 Dáil seats, again depending on vote transfers which can disproportionately favour the larger parties if they build a sense of momentum during the course of a campaign.
Taken along with Labour's support at 15 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent, the alternative rainbow coalition figures as of this week combine to a total of 48 per cent; a full 14 points ahead of the Fianna Fáil/PD combination, and enough to form a solid government if replicated at the next election.
A more detailed review of support levels for Fine Gael and Labour across key socio-demographic groupings indicates some sections of the electorate where both parties are relatively weak, and some where one party can complement the other. Thus it is clear that, relative to its total support levels, Fine Gael appeals more so to the farming community and middle/professional classes, while Labour support peaks among the blue collar/working segments.
In other words, assuming they can agree in principle on a range of policies, the two parties combined can appeal to a broad section of the electorate, spanning all social strata.
As a negative, however, both parties are relatively weak in the younger age groups 18-34 years, and will need to address the needs of these individuals in particular if they are to extend their overall vote even further.
The results of this poll will obviously come as welcome news to Fine Gael and Labour as potential coalition partners. Since January, these parties have honed in on specific issues they know to be of concern to the voter, from A&E to antisocial behaviour to rising levels of immigration. In doing so, however, they have in the main merely echoed the fears and concerns of the electorate, rather than present a definitive blueprint as to the precise steps they will take to shape a better society. This has been a disjointed approach, with some of their proposals appearing to lack any great substance.
While there are many who are clearly dissatisfied with the current administration, the average voter nevertheless knows that Fianna Fáil and the PDs have been in charge for many years now; they have the experience and know-how, particularly when it comes to managing the economy.
The Opposition will need to counterbalance its perceived lack of experience in this regard with very clear messages as to how a change of administration in itself is unlikely to undermine the fundamentals of our booming economy.
At the same time, the social issues already mentioned do need to be tackled. Both Fine Gael and Labour will need to press home their advantage by talking specifics from now on, and move beyond the sometimes vague proposals espoused in the recent past.