There are opinion polls which come close to killing off election campaigns by suggesting the result will be so clear-cut that canvassers might as well abandon the doorsteps now and head for the pub.
This isn't one of them. It is remarkable that the destination of very few European Parliament seats is predictable, based on the outcome of this opinion poll taken ten days before polling day. The impact of candidates in the final segment of this strongly personality-driven contest will determine who wins most of the seats.
Certain aspects of the local government elections are more predictable. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will lose loads of seats. Sinn Féin will make substantial gains, Labour will do well and the Greens and PDs may make advances, depending on the strength of campaigns in particular areas.
For party strategists looking to the next general election, the poll shows that had there been such an election earlier this week the Government parties would have won just 35 per cent of the vote compared to 43 per cent for the possible alternative of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party. These elections will determine whether the alternative parties can put in place enough quality Dáil candidates to take advantage of their superior public support.
In the Dublin Euro constituency, the only confident prediction that can be made is that Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell will be elected, topping the poll. He has improved from a poll-topping position of 19 per cent a fortnight before this poll to 24 per cent, which would have him elected with a healthy surplus on the first count.
After that there will be a Fianna Fáil candidate elected, but the question is, which one? Royston Brady's 18/13 lead over Eoin Ryan has been cut to 15/13, and with Ryan appearing to be attracting somewhat more transfers from lower placed candidates than Brady, he could catch him.
There will also be a Labour candidate elected. But Proinsias de Rossa's 14/8 lead over Ivana Bacik has been cut to 12/10. On these figures, de Rossa would make it. But these numbers represent the position ten days before polling, and the trend is towards narrowing of the margin between them.
The final seat will then be decided between Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald, the Green Party's Patricia McKenna, Fianna Fáil's second candidate and Labour's second.
The distribution of Joe Higgins 3 per cent and the 3 per cent scattered between three independents will determine the order of elimination of these contenders.
McDonald seems to be ahead but is vulnerable to being overtaken, as she does not seem to be attracting transfers in significant numbers. On the other hand McKenna appears to be the least well placed on this poll, but seems to be attracting healthy numbers of transfers.
Fianna Fáil's Eoin Ryan also attracts reasonable numbers of transfers (relevant only if he remains the second Fianna Fáil candidate). Labour needs to add a couple of percentage points to its first preference vote to have any chance of a second.
In East Fianna Fáil's Liam Aylward is on 26 per cent and appears certain of election, possibly on the first count. His running mate Séamus Kirk is far behind, however, on 9 per cent.
Fianna Fáil is at fault for the fact that while on 35 per cent of the first preference vote, it seems to have no chance of taking two seats, while Fine Gael on 33 per cent has such a chance. This is because Fine Gael's two candidates, Ms Avril Doyle and Ms Maireád McGuinness, have the party vote split 17/16, maximizing the chances of both staying in the race long enough to pick up transfers on later counts.
Ms Doyle has always said there is just one Fine Gael seat in East, and will now be hoping she is wrong. As a candidate with "celebrity" status outside the party Ms McGuinness could, on these figures, pick up enough transfers to get ahead of her. The fact Doyle (17 per cent) and McGuinness (16 per cent) are clearly ahead of Labour's Peter Cassells (12 per cent) means Fine Gael just might pull it off.
In South there has been a movement towards Independent Kathy Sinnott, perhaps resulting from early polls showing her as the candidate best placed to cause an anti-establishment upset. Brian Crowley and Simon Coveney look safe, with Fianna Fáil's Gerard Collins fighting a strong challenge from Sinnott for the final seat.
Finally in North West, only Fine Gael's Jim Higgins can be reasonably confident of election. Fianna Fáil's Jim McDaid (18 per cent) has now caught up with his running mate Seán Ó Neachtain (17 per cent). With McDaid benefiting significantly from transfers from the improving Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin (15 per cent), he seems likely to stay ahead. Independent Marian Harkin on 16 per cent is well placed for the final seat, but with Dana improving from 7 per cent last time to 10 per cent now, a further recovery cannot be ruled out.
So a spectacular Fine Gael European parliament result is possible, with the party - supposedly in decline - winning 5 seats out of 13 compared to 4 out of 15 in 1999.
However this will not compensate for the party's disappointment if the local government result turns out as suggested in this poll. With just 22 per cent saying they will support Fine Gael candidates in the local elections, down two points in a fortnight, Fine Gael is set to lose 30 or more local government seats. Party leader Enda Kenny has shown no lift in his low personal rating. And while those saying they would support Fine Gael in a General Election (24 per cent) show a marginal rise on this occasion, this may be due to the strength of the party's Euro candidates.
Fianna Fáil too is set for a substantial setback, with a 32 per cent rating in the locals bringing possibly over 50 local seat losses. Labour's 15 per cent compared to 11 per cent in the 1999 local elections would see it win a respectable number of extra seats. The Green Party and the PDs national votes remain virtually unchanged: Local factors will determine how well or badly they do.
It is Sinn Féin's 11 per cent that is likely to bring the victory story of the election. The party won just 3.5 per cent in 1999 - although the increase is artificially high because while this recent poll tested party support in every constituency, the party only contested in some areas in 1999. If it had contested every ward in 1999, its national total would obviously have been higher.
Having said that the party will win substantial numbers of seats, particularly in urban areas including Dublin, where it is set to become a significant force in local government politics. A win for Mary Lou McDonald in Dublin or possibly even Pearse Doherty in North West would add a spectacular touch. But even without either of these, the result s likely to mark a further quantum leap for Sinn Féin's standing as a political force in the Republic.