UN: By traditional geographic rotation, the next UN chief should come from Asia, but merit may be the deciding factor this time, writes Maggie Farley
With one year left in Kofi Annan's term as secretary-general, nearly everyone at the United Nations is talking about who will succeed him. Except for the candidates. In the protocol-ridden world of the UN, to promote oneself as a contender to be the world's top diplomat is considered most undiplomatic.
Candidates are typically nominated by their heads of state, a regional group, or have someone else put their name forward.
To campaign publicly tends to dampen one's chances of being selected by the Security Council. So until they have been formally entered as a candidate, most nominees deny wanting the job. That puts some of the quieter contenders in a cannot-win position. One diplomat whose name has been floated said that the more he denies he is in the running, the more convinced people are that he is.
"It is hardly a process at all. It is more like a lottery," said Brian Urquhart, a former undersecretary-general who has served or advised every secretary-general since the organisation's birth in 1945. "It has become a rather squalid competition with no set procedure, shrouded in Big Power secrecy. They don't even interview the candidates."
One of the earliest UN chiefs, Swedish diplomat Dag Hammarskjold, did not know he was being discussed as a candidate when he was notified that he had been selected to be secretary-general on April 1st, 1953. "He thought it was an April Fool's joke," Urquhart said.
The first secretary-general, Norwegian diplomat Trygve Lie, did not want the job, aspiring instead to be the president of the General Assembly. At that time, the secretary-general's job was viewed as more secretary than general, administering the organisation and its staff. But Hammarskjold helped to define the job in a way that has made it a powerful perch in world affairs. The secretary-general, he said, is the embodiment of the institution, representing all the nations.
The post does not have the weight of military or economic power, Hammarskjold said, but it does have the power of moral authority. He believed that his job was to discreetly prevent conflict before it ignited, and to push the world to embrace interdependence.
Annan aspired to that ideal. The soft-spoken UN career diplomat from Ghana won the Nobel Peace Prize, was handed a second term as secretary-general, and former US ambassador Richard Holbrooke dubbed him the "rock star of diplomacy". But after the $64 billion Iraq oil-for-food scandal, revelations of sexual abuse by peacekeepers and a struggle to reform the organisation, the next person to hold the post may once again be more secretary than general.
By traditional geographic rotation, the next UN chief should come from Asia. But Britain and the US have made it clear that merit should trump geography. "We've said that we want the best-qualified person from whatever region of the world that person might come from," US ambassador John Bolton said in a recent interview. "If it's an Asian, that's fine with us. If it's not an Asian, that's fine with us too."
What the two countries think matters, because the five permanent members of the Security Council - the US, Britain, China, France and Russia - choose the successor in a closed-door vote. After the other members of the 15-member council agree, the 191-member General Assembly formally appoints the person selected.
US officials say it may be Asia's turn, but that they are still waiting to see a candidate with the right qualifications. That is not a vote of confidence in the two candidates who have actually been publicly nominated, Thai deputy prime minister Surakiart Sathirathai and Sri Lankan non-proliferation expert Jayantha Dhanapala. Sri Lanka reportedly has a couple of candidates in reserve, including prime minister Chandrika Kumaratunga, who would appeal to those pushing for a woman to head the UN.
Eastern Europe is also lobbying for a chance at the post, but Russia does not want any other voices from the region which might challenge its own. If that does not kill off the chances of the most talked-about candidate, former polish president Aleksander Kwasniewski, his recent remark that he only wanted the post if the UN had already been cleaned up would take him out of the race. Latvian president Vaira Vike-Freiberga has also been mentioned, but she would have to overcome Russian objections.
Other names which have been floated include Jordan's ambassador to the UN, Prince Zeid Raad Hussein, who has been a peacekeeper and former president of a group of the International Criminal Court's founding members, and Kemal Dervis, Turkey's former economics czar, who now heads the UN Development Programme.
Although there is an unwritten agreement that no one from a permanent member of the Security Council can hold the post because this would concentrate too much power with one country, a campaign pushing Bill Clinton gained momentum in a Harper's magazine cover story this month insisting that he is the only one who has the international clout, experience and charisma to revive the UN and its "sense of relevance to Americans".
Then there are those who question why anybody would want the post, which the first secretary-general described as "the most impossible job on Earth".
Annan has a bit of advice for his successor. "They need thick skin," he said recently, moments before lashing out at a contentious reporter. "And they need a sense of humour."