THE consensus in Cork North Central is that Bernard Allen of Fine Gael will top the poll. Mr Allen was never one to neglect his constituency but since his elevation to junior minister status with responsibility for sport, he has indeed left his mark in his own backyard.
He has been responsible for the construction of a £2.5 million swimming pool in Bishopstown; he presided over a £1.3 million indoor pitch development in Gurranebraher; he secured £250,000 for the Turner's Cross soccer pitch development; and he announced a £2.3 million development, uniquely involving Cork soccer clubs and the GAA, to develop a new infrastructure involving both codes.
The five seater constituency takes in a vast area, stretching from Watergrasshill near Fermoy back to the sprawling urban areas of Cork's north side, where there are many problems.
These are not exclusive to the north side, but in this area, dominated by local authority housing, the taking and driving away of cars has led to the deaths of three young people in the recent past.
Chief Supt Adrian Culligan has said the problem of car thieving has been brought under control, by and large, but the candidates on the doorsteps will find that law and order is a major issue.
That aside, the likelihood is that Mr Allen, whose largesse as a minister has not gone unnoticed, will scoop the pool.
Politicians don't like that kind of advance publicity, but even his opponents expect the Allen camp will dominate the constituency after this election.
Fianna Fail's Dan Wallace, a sitting TD, will take a seat, probably coming second to Mr Allen. There should be no fear about his seat.
The consensus, too, is that Mairin Quill, for the Progressive Democrats, will retain her seat, as will Kathleen Lynch of Democratic Left. That accounts for the four sitting TDs and leaves a question mark over the fifth seat, which should be a cliffhanger.
Mr Noel Flynn of Fianna Fail is a serious contender and is not averse to investing heavily in his own campaign. Fianna Fail senator Mr Billy Kelleher failed to take a seat at the last election by a margin of 25 votes.
The Fianna Fail man is a relation of Fine Gael's Liam Burke, a sitting TD in the constituency. Mr Burke is a political infighter who doesn't surrender seats lightly.
Ms Sheila O'Sullivan of the Labour Party, a county councillor, is based in Glanmire and because of that may find that things will not go her own way.
Labour needs an urbanbased candidate in Cork and she does not provide that.
The way things are looking now, Fine Gael will take two seats in the constituency, Fianna Fail one, the PDs one, and Democratic Left one.