North Down is a two-way contest between the sitting MP, UK Unionist leader, Mr Bob McCartney, and Ulster Unionist candidate, Lady Sylvia Hermon.
The UUP was the biggest political party in the 1998 Assembly election, polling 33 per cent of the vote followed by 22 per cent for the UK Unionists. The DUP isn't running and Mr McCartney is likely to secure the 7 per cent support it received in 1998.
That would put him within striking distance of the UUP. However, Lady Sylvia's chances have been boosted by the Alliance Party's decision to step aside and give her a clear run. Alliance polled 14 per cent in 1998.
The Woman's Coalition, which secured 5 per cent then, is also not running. Many of its voters are likely to support Hermon. According to the statistics, she must be favourite to win.
The McCartney team argues that a substantial body of UUP voters in the constituency are anti-Agreement and will support him. The 1998 figures indicate that less than a quarter of UUP voters are anti-Agreement - the proportion who supported dissident UUP candidate Mr Peter Weir.
Mr McCartney argues that disillusionment with the Agreement has increased since then. He also points to strong divisions in the local UUP with its original candidate, Mr Weir, being deselected.
The UUP leadership has been accused of manipulating the selection process to ensure Lady Sylvia secured the nomination. Mr McCartney's supporters believe this could backfire with voters. But the UUP candidate still undoubtedly enters the election from the stronger position.
North Down is overwhelmingly Protestant but both nationalist parties are standing. Ms Marietta Farrell (SDLP) is hoping to build on the 5 per cent she polled in 1998. Sinn Fein is contesting the constituency for the first time. Its candidate, Mr Eamon McConvery, seems unlikely to secure more than a few hundred votes. Independent Mr Chris Carter and Conservative Mr Julian Robertson are the other two candidates seeking the North Down seat.