The Amazon basin could lose 40 per cent of its rainforest cover in 30 years if Brazil doesn't introduce tougher deforestation controls.
Failure to act could release 32 billion tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere as the forests are cleared and burned.
The biologically rich Brazilian rainforest has a bleak future if action is not taken, according to a new study prepared by scientists at the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais and published today in Nature. A rapid expansion of the cattle and soy industries in the region is having a catastrophic impact as lands are cleared for grazing and for soya.
"By 2050, current trends in agricultural expansion will eliminate a total of 40 per cent of Amazon forests, including at least two-thirds of the forest cover of six major watersheds and 12 eco-regions, releasing 32 Pg [32billion tonnes] of carbon into the atmosphere," the authors note. There will be a related impact on animals living in the forests.
"One quarter of the 382 mammalian species examined will lose more than 40 per cent of the forest within their Amazon ranges."
They describe the basin as entering "a new era", where the profitability of ranching and farming is driving deforestation.
One major problem, and a potential answer, lies in the current conservation measures adopted by the Brazilian government. The current practice is to designate state-owned areas as protected, but to allow clearing of private lands.
The authors argue that the forests can only be protected if the state can demand that private lands also be conserved as necessary.
The protected areas in themselves are not large enough to protect larger regions and watersheds.
The authors developed a predictive model encompassing a range of options from a business-as- usual scenario through to the highest level of protection that the government could reasonably provide.
The model took into account major road-building, an activity that eats up large amounts of the forest and which will proceed at some level no matter what protected areas are designated.
The worst-case model showed that 40 per cent of the forests inside the protected areas would be lost, with 85 per cent of the forests on private lands.
Eight of the 12 major Amazonian watersheds would lose more than half their forest cover, 18 of the Amazon's 32 major forested eco-regions would lose more than 40 per cent of their forest cover and 12 would lose more than 70 per cent by 2050.
The authors argue that international markets for beef and soy should demand higher environmental standards to force a more ecologically sound approach by Brazilian farmers.