US: Faced with a US-led invasion of Iraq, Saddam Hussein will likely launch missile and terrorist attacks against Israel and US facilities abroad, pre-emptive strikes against the Kurds in the north, and a scorched-earth strategy in Iraq "significant enough to stop a military advance", according to the US Defense Department's top intelligence official.
Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate intelligence committee that he expected Saddam to destroy Iraq's food and water supplies, and its transportation, energy and other infrastructure, creating a humanitarian disaster that would occupy the attention of US troops trying to reach Baghdad and Iraqi military units.
In a briefing largely devoted to Iraq, Mr Jacoby also called North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons "the most serious challenge to US regional interests in a generation". While the Bush administration has sought to play down the bellicose rhetoric from Pyongyang and has ruled out the use of force to compel North Korea to dismantle its nuclear weapons programme, Mr Jacoby was more blunt about the threat: "The outcome of this current crisis will shape relations in Northeast Asia for years to come."
Three other factors made the North Korea situation particularly troubling, Mr Jacoby said: Pyongyang's willingness to market nuclear weapons to terrorists; its continued development and testing of ballistic missiles capable of sending nuclear material to Japan and, in the future, the United States; and the fact that any war against the large, forward-deployed North Korean military would be "violent, destructive, and could occur with very little warning".
CIA director Mr George Tenet, questioned about the value of ongoing inspections by the United Nations, said there was "little chance you'll find weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq unless Saddam co-operates with inspectors. On the other hand, Mr Tenet said he would expect US troops "will find caches of weapons of mass destruction, absolutely" were they to invade the country.
If the United States decides not to go to war with Iraq and instead waits on inspectors, the Iraqi leader would continue developing weapons of mass destruction, Mr Tenet said. "He will continue to strengthen himself over time. It never gets any better with this fellow, and he's never been a status quo guy."
Mr Tenet also elaborated on the CIA's understanding of Iraq's link to al-Qaida, a central issue in the administration's case for going to war against Iraq in the near future, as opposed to waiting months longer for the UN inspectors to do more work. Mr Tenet described Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the main character in the administration's case that Iraq is working with al-Qaida now, as it had not done in the past, as a "senior al-Qaida associate". Zarqawi sought medical care in Baghdad, has met with Osama bin Laden, has been financially supported by al-Qaida and has taken "sustenance" from Iraq. But Zarqawi, he pointed out, was not under the control of Saddam.
"I did not suggest operational direction and control" of Zarqawi by Iraq, Mr Tenet said. "He thinks of himself as independent and derives sustenance from them."
Mr Tenet described the other two dozen terrorist operatives who moved into Iraq after the US invaded Afghanistan as members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which merged with al-Qaida years ago. "They are indistinguishable from al-Qaida," he said.
French and German officials, who have had access to US intelligence and analysis, have said they are not convinced there is a direct or credible link between al-Qaida and Iraq. They point out the fundamental ideological difference between the Islamic, religious-based al-Qaida followers and the secular nature of Iraq's regime. Furthermore, they say it is not in Saddam's interest to attack the United States, a move that would give the United States a clear-cut reason to invade.
Mr Tenet also testified that US intelligence agencies had turned over to the UN inspectors all relevant information about weapons sites in Iraq that had a "high" or "moderate" likelihood of containing weapons or remnants of weapons material.