THE OUTGOING DAIL: FF 76; FG 54; Labour 21; PDs 4; Greens 2; Sinn Fein 1; Socialist Party 1; Others 7: Geraldine Kennedy introduces a constituency-by-constituency analysis by Mark Hennessy and Michael O'Regan of what to look out for as the ballot papers are counted in the 42 constituencies
Could this be the election to change the composition of the Opposition as well as the Government? Will Bertie Ahern follow in the footsteps of Jack Lynch to win an overall majority for Fianna Fáil for the first time in 25 years? Will he replace John Bruton as the leading poll-topper in the State? Will Sinn Féin replace the Progressive Democrats and the Greens as the fourth-biggest party? Will Mary Harney have any claim on the post of Tánaiste? And could Ruairí Quinn win the battle for seats and lose the war of government?
The fascinating story will unfold with the opening of the ballot boxes this morning. It will continue with nail-biting counts in the most unlikely constituencies tomorrow.
The Irish Times has prepared an easily accessible guide for readers focusing on what to look out for in each constituency.
The national opinion polls say one thing. But, the politicians would say that yesterday's poll is the only one that matters.
The battleground for this election is in 42 constituencies, an increase of one since 1997. The new constituency is Dublin Mid West, a three-seater. There are changes in the number of seats in five other constituencies. Dublin North East, Dublin North West and Dublin West go from four to three seats. Dublin South Central goes from four to five seats. Dublin South West drops from five to four seats.
For this election also, Carlow-Kilkenny is a four-seater because of the automatic re-election of the Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Pattison.
The map (opposite) shows the re-drawn battleground for 2002 with the current breakdown of existing seats in the run-up to the contest. Some TDs are changing constituencies.
In the last general election in 1997, his first as leader, Bertie Ahern got a 12-seat bonus with 39.33 per cent of the first-preference vote. The seeking of transfers was the key to the result. The number of seats won by the parties was: Fianna Fáil, 77, Fine Gael, 54, Labour Party, 17, Democratic Left, 4, Progressive Democrats, 4, Green Party, 2, Sinn Féin, 1, Socialist Party, 1 and Others, 6.
In real terms, the Fianna Fáil-PD Coalition is in possession of 76 Fianna Fáil (the outgoing TDs Denis Foley and Liam Lawlor are ex-FF and Ray Burke has retired) and four PD seats.
The two Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls conducted during the campaign suggested that Fianna Fáil's first-preference vote was holding steady at 45 per cent if the election were held last Monday.
The party last hit that figure during Mr Charles Haughey's time - 45.20 per cent in November 1982, 47.26 per cent in February 1982, and 45.26 per cent in June 1987. The 45 per cent figure did not guarantee entry into government.
There are a number of constituencies where a small swing to Fianna Fáil could produce extra seats: less than 1 per cent in Carlow-Kilkenny; 1-2 per cent in Kildare South, Cavan- Monaghan and Galway East; 2-3 per cent in Donegal South West, Dublin South East, Westmeath, Mayo and Longford- Roscommon.
Finally, who will be the national poll-topper with the biggest personal vote in election 2002?
The top 10 vote-getters in 1997 were: the outgoing Taoiseach, John Bruton (FG, Meath) 13.037; Willie O'Dea (FF, Limerick East) 12,581; Bertie Ahern ( Leader of Fianna Fáil in Dublin Central) 12,175; Liam Aylward (FF, Carlow-Kilkenny) 11,849; Michael Lowry (Ind, Tipperary North) 11,638; Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (SF, Cavan-Monaghan) 11,531; and Ivor Callely (FF, Dublin North Central) 11,190.