ECB watchers are unanimous in expecting the central bank to keep interest rates at 2 per cent for the 17th month in a row when it meets today.
This would buy the ECB more time to gauge whether the 55 per cent surge in crude oil prices this year is driving up underlying inflation or whether euro zone recovery is running into serious headwinds that should hold inflation in check.
The latest challenge is euro strength. Deutsche Bank calculates that if sustained, the euro's strength would harm exports enough to shave 0.5 per cent off euro zone growth in the coming year, throwing doubts over the strength of recovery.
That much of a slowdown would be unwelcome for an economy expanding at about a 2 per cent annual rate - too weak to reduce 9 per cent unemployment or revive lacklustre consumer spending.
The ECB Governing Council announces its decision at 12.45 p.m., followed 45 minutes later by ECB President Mr Jean-Claude Trichet's news conference.
Analysts will listen closely to his prognosis for prices after consumer inflation leapt to 2.5 per cent in October. Oil prices were largely to blame.
US crude oil held well above $50 a barrel all last month and Brent prices also breached that barrier, though both are now starting to ease.
Despite high oil, the ECB so far has said it remains on track to bring inflation below its 2 per cent ceiling by mid 2005 so long as broader inflationary pressures do not emerge.