Analysts say ECB rate cuts unlikely

The European Central Bank is unlikely to lower interest rates this week.

The European Central Bank is unlikely to lower interest rates this week.

However, analysts are still expecting a rate cut by mid-year or sooner if the euro zone economy continues to disappoint.

"The underlying inflation trend is very low indeed, and this is likely to last almost the full year 2003," said Chief Economist Europe, Ms Veronique Riches-Flores at Société Générale.

"That means there is no reason for the ECB to keep interest rates at the current level, given the outlook for growth," she said.

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Consumer price rises do not stand in the way of cheaper borrowing costs as a persistently climbing euro helps improve prospects that inflation this year will drop below the bank's 2 per cent ceiling.

Although analysts doubt the central bank will follow December's half percentage point rate cut with an additional easing at its meeting on Thursday, they are looking for lower rates in coming months.

Financial markets are discounting lower interest rates too, with three-month money market futures, which give an indication of market interest rate expectations, roughly pricing in a 60 per cent chance of a quarter point rate cut in March and more than fully pricing it in for September.

Likewise, half of 51 economists in a Reuters poll last Friday said ECB interest rates had not yet reached their lowest point, with 18 favouring further easing in March and seven forecasting a cut by June.