Widespread flooding has cost five lives, cut power and water supplies across Britain and caused hardship on an unprecedented level. It could happen here, writes Tim O'Brien.
Hundreds of thousands of people in Britain are continuing to suffer hardship this weekend after the worst weather in 60 years caused the Severn - the UK's longest river - and the Thames to burst their banks.
With more then 10,000 homes and businesses flooded, insurance claims estimated at ¤4.5 billion and flood warnings still in place in London boroughs, the unseasonal rainfall has left Britain reeling. By Thursday last more rain had already fallen in May, June and July than had fallen in similar months in about 250 years of record keeping.
Now, as the floodwaters start to recede upstream, the danger of bacterial contamination of water supplies threatens the lives of elderly and very young people, as well as the health of the wider population. About 340,000 people in Cheltenham, Tewkesbury and Gloucester will be without tap water for another week while army and police supervise distribution by tankers.
As flood surges move downstream, the towns of Reading, Caversham, Wargrave and Shiplake are all under threat. A number of severe flood warnings remain in place along both the Thames and Severn.
The London boroughs of Sutton, Merton and Lewisham were still facing uncertain conditions yesterday, according to the Environment Agency of England and Wales.
Five people have lost their lives since the floods began. Two men died while trying to pump flood water out of Tewkesbury Rugby Club on Thursday. These deaths occurred after the body of a man in his 40s was pulled out of the River Great Ouse in Bedford on Tuesday, which may be another direct result of the flooding. A woman stranded in the floods in Tewkesbury lost her newborn twins last weekend despite the best efforts of the RAF to get them to hospital in time to save their lives.
Farmers are expected to find livestock dead and crops destroyed. Almost a quarter of Britain's 18,000 dairy farmers will suffer severe losses. The credit ratings agency Fitch has said insurance claims are ikely to run to £3 billion (€.5 billion). At their worst, the floods caused severe damage to the southern suburbs of Oxford, with water lapping at the doors of the venerable university itself.
ONE OF THOSE anxiously watching the floods rise last week was Dublin woman Cathy McCann, who was due to be married in Oxford University's Ashmolean Museum yesterday.
Like many of the university buildings, the Ashmolean has survived extreme weather events over several hundred years. McCann was full of praise for what she called the "calm and philosophical" way in which the university responded to the weather threat. But she did not underestimate the disruption to services and daily lives brought by the weather and spent many anxious hours poring over transport and police websites to determine whether trains were still running and hotels were still open for her guests.
In the event, the wedding went off smoothly and just a few people cancelled due to the weather, she told The Irish Times.
The university's stoicism is commendable - a spokeswoman told The Irish Times"reports of sandbags at the doors were not accurate", and that flooding had occurred only in the south of the city "where it had been expected". However, with a cricket pitch a few hundred metres from Christ Church College submerged and the "precautionary closure" of the music faculty as well as closure of various paths and meadows around the colleges, it is clear that the university has had much food for thought.
So what is causing the extreme weather? According to weather forecasters here and in the UK, a jet stream which funnels wind across the Atlantic is positioned further south than usual for this time of year. This contributes to a cold front from the Atlantic meeting a warm front from Europe. Where cold air meets warm, it rains. If the jet stream was further north, this cold area of low pressure would drift away northwards, allowing warmer high pressure to drift up from the south.
Whether the conditions are a result of global warming, forecasters refuse to say, pointing out that global warming is a pattern, not an extreme event. Peter Stott, climate scientist at the UK's Met Office, said people "cannot make the link between climate change and what we have experienced so far this summer". However, he cautioned that "with a warmer climate there could be an increase in extreme rainfall events despite the expected general trend toward drier summers".
COULD THE LEVELS of flooding experienced in parts of Britain happen here? "Well yes, if we got that much rain," says a spokesman for the Office of Public Works (OPW), the principal body responsible for flood defence works.
Commenting on the situation in the UK, the OPW spokesman said flooding had occurred not because there were no flood barriers, but because the barriers were overwhelmed by the unexpectedly high volume of rain. The experience had shown that if there was enough rain it would be impossible to prevent flooding.
The Government's National Flood Policy, adopted in 2004, proposed a twopronged strategy. Firstly, to build flood defences for existing communities under threat and, secondly, to discourage building on flood plains through studies and guidelines for planning authorities.
To help communities assess their risk of flooding, the OPW also operates two websites: the first, ww.floodmaps.ie, shows areas at risk of flooding; and the second, www.flooding.ie, offers practical advice in the event of a flood warning. In recent years, following high-profile flooding in Cos Dublin, Carlow, Kilkenny and Tipperary, the OPW has built flood defences at Carrick-on-Suir, the River Nore in Kilkenny, and the River Tolka in Dublin. In Dublin, up to €0 million has been spent over the last five years, according to Tom Leahy, deputy city engineer.
A flood defence system has also been put in place on the upper Dodder, while a scheme for the Lower Dodder is under way.
The Minister of State with responsibility for the OPW, Noel Ahern, has produced a list of flood defence schemes which, while not actually built yet, are in various stages of development. According to the Minister, contracts are due this year for the first phase of major schemes in Clonmel, Ennis, Fermoy and Mallow.
The OPW is also working with local authorities in Carlow and Waterford city "with a view to commencing schemes late this year or early in 2008". Work is also expected to commence shortly to prevent flooding from the Liffey through the Royal Canal.
The Minister also points out that flood defence schemes are "at various stages of planning" for Arklow, Bray, Enniscorthy, Mornington, Portarlington, Templemore, Tullamore and Tullow.
Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Minister for the Environment, John Gormley, has said the Minister is appealing to all local authorities to ensure their emergency plans in relation to flooding are up to date and ready to be implemented.