IRAQ:UN secretary general Kofi Annan said yesterday Iraq was on the brink of a civil war that would ignite unless something was done "drastically and urgently" to stop it. Mr Annan issued his warning on a day marked by a flurry of efforts around the world to stem the violence.
The White House acknowledged yesterday that sectarian violence in Iraq had entered "a new phase" but denied it amounted to civil war. US national security adviser Stephen Hadley said President Bush would discuss with Iraqi prime minister Nuri al-Maliki in Jordan this week how to deal with the worsening bloodshed.
NBC News yesterday branded the conflict a civil war, which puts it at odds with the White House and which analysts say could increase public disillusionment with the US troop presence there.
Iraqi president Jalal Talabani arrived in Tehran yesterday to talk to Iranian leaders about what role they might play in stabilising the situation. Mr Bush's foreign trip is due to include a meeting with Mr Maliki tomorrow in Jordan. And in Washington, the Iraq Study Group (ISG), a bipartisan commission studying US options, met to discuss a draft report, on the day that the length of the conflict overtook America's involvement in the second World War.
The ISG draft, according to the New York Times, did not include a timetable for withdrawal, as Democrats have demanded, but called for an aggressive regional diplomatic initiative involving direct talks with Iran and Syria.
In Baghdad, a three-day curfew was lifted, but many residents did not return to work out of fear of sectarian conflict. Reports said the Shia al-Mahdi army militia was ethnically cleansing Sunni enclaves east of the Tigris river, and pushing into traditionally Sunni districts in the west. At least 39 bodies were found on the streets of the capital yesterday.
Asked yesterday if he thought a civil war had begun, Mr Annan said: "Given the developments on the ground, unless something is done drastically and urgently to arrest the deteriorating situation, we could be there. In fact we are almost there."
The 10-member ISG panel, equally split between Democrats and Republicans, has reportedly agreed on a diplomatic strategy to recommend to the White House, but is divided over military options.
"It's not at all clear that we can reach consensus on the military questions," an unnamed panel member told the New York Times. Over the weekend, a prominent Republican senator, Chuck Hagel, joined Democrats in calling for a troop withdrawal to head off "impending disaster".
Mr Hagel, a Vietnam veteran and possible presidential candidate, published a commentary in the Washington Post saying the Bush administration "misunderstood, misread, misplanned and mismanaged our honourable intentions in Iraq with an arrogant self-delusion reminiscent of Vietnam".
Mr Bush, meanwhile, has shown no signs that he is willing to contemplate a withdrawal. He has also commissioned studies from his national security council and the Pentagon which, according to leaks, may recommend a short-term boost in troop levels prior to a drastic reduction.
However, the commander of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Gen John Abizaid, has said he did not think US reinforcements would have much effect.
Political observers in Washington say it will be hard for the president to disregard the recommendations of the ISG when they are delivered next month. The commission is made up of respected senior figures from both parties, and a former member, Robert Gates, is due to take over as defence secretary in the next few weeks.