It has not been an auspicious beginning to the new Dail session for the Government. Crisis in the North - an entirely predictable crisis if Ministers had been reading this newspaper's Northern coverage on decommissioning - as well as revelations about that normally discreet and little known backbencher, Denis Foley, have ensured that Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney's political new year got off to a bad start.
That hoary old question - a multiple and loaded one - what was the Taoiseach told and when, has provided the usual obfuscation and prevarication from Bertie. But that question, raised openly in the case of Deputy Foley's Ansbacher account, can also be directed at various parties and leaders concerned with the decommissioning process. Even if these two bombshells had not crashed down on the Government's bunker, the manner of Bertie's Cabinet reshuffle had already created some less obvious but significant political problems.
Drapier's satisfaction at seeing Bertie take his advice about a reshuffle dissipated quickly as the Taoiseach's nervous, cackhanded manoeuvrings within his parliamentary party provoked discontent at every level.
Within Cabinet, Dermot Ahern, who has performed well not only as a Minister, but also a loyal lieutenant who diverted flak from Bertie over the Ray Burke/JMSE affair, had expected more. So, too did Noel Dempsey, whose profile and energetic contributions in his Department had led him to believe he would be rewarded. Both men could and would have been given more high-profile portfolios if the Taoiseach had not been so concerned to implement a minimalist reshuffle. The irony is that such conservatism has itself led to resentment among all layers of the party.
Outside the Cabinet at least half the junior ministers have been alienated for two different reasons. The now standard spin doctoring about who is in and out of favour and who might expect promotion accentuated the disappointment of at least six juniors who believe they have more claims than the new boy, Frank Fahey, to a Cabinet seat.
This might be considered inevitable, but Bertie compounded his problems by ringing up to half-a-dozen junior ministers and sweetly inquiring about their long-term intentions.
The aim was to create openings for ambitious backbenchers, but the result was to create offence among those who received weekend calls that implied a wish by the Taoiseach that they disappear. Even worse was the accompanying spin doctoring that identified in the media some of those who looked as if they were being gently eased out. At backbench level, there is a growing number of restless young deputies who believe youthful energy and talent is being ignored in favour of retaining support among the old guard. Watch out for more speeches from this quarter about the need to cast off the old, sleazy image of the Haughey era in favour of new, modern, unblemished TDs like . . . well, themselves, actually.
If this is what Bertie had in mind when he carried out a minimalist reshuffle then God alone knows what the result would have been if he had gone for a real reshuffle. It could hardly have been worse, given the sullen faces dotted around FF quarters in the Dail, but at least it would have delivered a real refurbishment of his administration and a brand new image to the electorate.
Then there was the new year outing of Denis Foley. As usual, it is the response that creates as much and sometimes more damage than the original revelation. You could almost see FF members dropping their heads into their hands as Bertie offered the tired excuse that the judicial process must take its course before Deputy Foley could be judged - or dealt with. In other words, not until after the tribunal reports, which is hardly likely to be before the next election.
Quite apart from the clear and imminent danger of a Kerry North by-election producing a most unfavourable outcome (which would be worse - a victory for Labour's Maeve Spring or for Sinn Fein's Martin Ferris?), with the parliamentary arithmetic proving too much even for chief whip, Seamus Brennan's allegedly magical powers, two questions occur: First, why does FF not do to Foley what Fine Gael did to a far more senior member of its own administration, Michael Lowry, in a similar situation?
Behind the scenes, Government apologists are saying Lowry was not forced to resign his seat. Quite so. But the former Minister and John Bruton's "very best friend" was expelled from his party, pending legal moves regardless.
But the judicial process defence is even more dangerous for Bertie. Deputy Foley must be judged by the Moriarty tribunal before his party can take any steps. But the Taoiseach is not - as far as we know - the subject of any tribunal inquiry. Bertie can, if he wishes, answer questions about his conversations with his errant backbencher. The dreaded "What, when and how much?" question can be put - and answered - without any breach of sub judice rules if the Taoiseach so desires.
As if this was not enough, one of the jewels in the administration's crown, the peace process, unravelled straight after the Foley fiasco. Here again, who knew what and when is a question that has seen Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, David Trimble and Dermot Nesbitt at each others' throats in desperate efforts to apportion blame over the collapse of the Executive and Assembly. Drapier believes that SF/IRA will receive most of the public odium for what has happened. But that is hardly the point. Drapier's republican sources have repeatedly advised him over the last 12 months and more that decommissioning was not going to happen. More interestingly, the same sources also claimed the Taoiseach, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and even David Trimble had been given the same message.
Drapier is not especially privileged and is no more well placed to receive such information than other, more senior politicians who must surely have received the same messages. Even readers of The Irish Times could have told both governments the IRA was intent on "not surrendering" itself or its weaponry, especially after Trimble's post-dated resignation.
So why was there such shock and amazement from Government Buildings and Downing Street this week? If Bertie and Tony did not know there would be no decommissioning, it was not because they were not so advised. It was because they retreated into a fog of wishful thinking that could now assist the elimination of Trimble from politics or, even worse, a breakdown of the entire process.
The situation may be insoluble, as some have argued, but it would have been better to face up to the problem when there was time and opportunity to deal with it rather than wait for the inevitable and forewarned crisis.