Anti-EU sentiment is strong among Danes of all political persuasions

Country profile: Denmark Denmark's relations with the European Union are never simple.

Country profile: Denmark Denmark's relations with the European Union are never simple.

Not only have the Danes voted No in three important referendums (two attempts at the Maastricht Treaty the early 1990s and the euro in 2000), the country also has a very large, albeit fractured, anti-EU political base that is spread across all shades and colours of the political spectrum. Some of these groups are completely against the idea of European integration, while others simply disagree with the form that integration has taken.

Despite this, turnout at European elections is quite high here. Over 50 per cent of the voting population turned out in 1999. While this does not compare with the turnout of almost 90 per cent at the last general election in 2001, it is respectable. This time around Danes will vote on a Sunday for the first time and this is expected to have a positive impact on the poll.

As with most EU countries, the economy and immigration are major issues in the context of any vote concerning the European Union. However, fundamental questions regarding the concept of European co-operation and the nature of the EU itself remain unresolved here and will play an important role in this election.

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"The 'for' or 'against' question seems to be a much more persistent issue in Danish European elections than elsewhere. The parties or movements that are against the EU are estimated to get four out of every 14 votes," says Karina Pedersen, from the Political Science Department at University of Copenhagen.

"The anti-EU side will try to focus on all the 'bad things' about the EU including: waste of money, high pay, incomprehensible laws, as well as the loss of a permanent Danish Commissioner and the status of the Danish language," Ms Pedersen says.

"Depending on how the constitutional treaty stands at the time, this could become an issue. Also any moves towards Turkey's accession between now and the election may play into the hands of the anti-immigration lobby."

Danish involvement in the Iraqi conflict is also expected to have an impact on this European election. Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, from Venstre (a radical right-leaning party), has recently had to respond to a whistle-blowing member of the intelligence service, who stated that the government exaggerated the possibility of weapons of mass destruction to support the American invasion of Iraq.

Prime Minister Rasmussen, who has been a stalwart supporter of President Bush, recently used the Abu Ghraib prison scandal to distance himself from the US administration. It may be too little, too late.

As a result of enlargement, Denmark will elect 14 representatives to the European Parliament, a drop of two. So who will win and who will lose?

Denmark is currently governed by a centre-right coalition dominated by the Venstre (which is also known as the Liberal party), the smaller Conservative Party and the far right Danish People's Party. In the last European election, Venstre was the major winner, taking five of the 16 seats. However, the coalition government, which is mid-way through its term of office, may face a backlash based on the usual mid-term blues and the Iraq issue. Indeed a recent poll suggested that a general election today would see a switch back to the previous government based on the Social Democrats and a centre-left coalition.

Only four of the current five Venstre MEPs are to run this time. The party is ready for the loss of a seat but may loose two.

The Danish People's party will be attempting to return its present MEP on an anti-EU, anti-immigration ticket. The Conservatives will also be attempting to get their incumbent MEP re-elected, along with one other candidate who is an experienced politician at local level.

The Social Democrats, the main opposition party, sense an opportunity to balance the score in Europe and are hoping to build on their three existing seats. These hopes rest largely on the shoulders of Poul Nyrop Rasmussen, the previous prime minister, who has thrown his hat into the European ring for the first time. Mr Rasmussen was the main political victim of Denmark's No in the referendum on the euro in 2000 and his colours are firmly pinned to the pro-European mast. He is not going to win many sceptics over.

However, the Social Democrats hope his down-to-earth style will contrast favourably with the super-smooth, Blairite approach of the current prime minister.

The EU sceptics are dominated by the June Movement, headed by Jens Peter Bonde, the longest-serving MEP in Brussels, and the People's Movement Against the EU, which is headed by Ole Krarup. Together, they have managed to capture almost a quarter of the vote in EU elections since 1976. Mr Bonde, a one-man political phenomenon, should be a shoo-in. The Socialist People's Party has relegated its sitting EU-sceptic MEP to second place on a more positive EU ticket, a move that some believe may simply confuse the electorate.