Any new political landscape will bring uncertainty

Analysis: The North's beleaguered electorate may well wonder why it bothered going out to vote yesterday - if many did, that…

Analysis: The North's beleaguered electorate may well wonder why it bothered going out to vote yesterday - if many did, that is, Dan Keenan writes.

With heavy showers and temperatures in single figures, the weather played only a small part. Unanswered political questions could account for the rest of the explanation.

The electorate is aware the outgoing Assembly has not sat for more than 13 months, and there is at least the possibility that the next one might not meet at all.

Voters are braced for another protracted set of talks between party delegations and the two governments at Castle Buildings, Stormont.

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The future could not be more uncertain, but what is known is that a review procedure - already scheduled under the Belfast Agreement - will be formally announced.

The two governments will also renew their efforts to tackle the problems that led to the suspension of the Stormont institutions in October 2002.

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister are to meet tomorrow in Cardiff. Their talks will commence before the final results are known, although trends should be well in evidence. It is thought they will endorse moves towards private contacts with the parties.

The Northern Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, will probably have private conversations with the party leaders over the weekend to establish the mood after the counts.

The 108 members of the new Assembly cannot meet until the suspension of the body is lifted. Well-placed sources at Stormont suggest there will be no rush to do this.

Following any first Assembly session, a timetable is automatically begun which must end with the election of a new First and Deputy First Minister within six weeks. If such a process ends in failure, then new elections must be called.

The d'Hondt mechanism for choosing members of the next Executive must also be started days after a new Assembly meets for the first time.

It is clear there is no real appetite for Downing Street to lift suspension unless there is confidence that all processes leading to the election of an Executive and to the Office of First and Deputy First Minister will be successful.

The most benign outlook, from the point of view of the British government, is for the SDLP and Ulster Unionists to retain their current positions as leaders of their respective communities.

Efforts would then be focused on finishing the process which so nearly brought agreement on October 21st, and which could have paved the way to restoration of the Stormont institutions.

If, as expected, the political landscape is significantly altered by the weekend then the next steps are difficult to predict.

The review of the accord, originally designed to provide an opportunity for fine-tuning, will take on a higher profile, though it is not yet known just what format it will take.

What is not envisaged is a return of Senator George Mitchell or a similar outside figure.

If Mr David Trimble leads his party as the largest unionist grouping then, as Sinn Féin predicts, both sides could try to pick up where they left off in October.

It is hoped that the impetus of a fresh election could help the two leaders make up the difference.

If, however, Dr Paisley's DUP is in the ascendant, then the nationalist/unionist debate takes on a new face.

What happens then can only be guessed at, but remember that DUP members and republicans have worked alongside each other on district councils for 20 years.

They have also worked effectively together on Stormont's committees.