US: Four Democratic contenders are bunched together ahead of today's Iowa caucuses, reports Conor O'Clery in Des Moines
On the way to a John Kerry rally in Des Moines on Saturday evening, one of his commnications team, Mr Jack Kowalski, told me how worried he was that it could go wrong.
It would feature an unrehearsed meeting with a Vietnam veteran, a former Green Beret who had called the Kerry office to say that the Massachusetts senator had saved his life in the Mekong Delta in 1969, and he wanted to publicly thank him. They had never met since and the staff thought it was risky to stage an unscripted meeting. But the event was a huge success. Senator John Kerry is on a roll and everything is suddenly going his way.
After a campaign which flopped badly early on, and after watching Howard Dean grab all the big endorsements, the Massachusetts senator finds himself the unexpected front-runner on the eve of today's Iowa caucuses. In the space of a week, Senator Kerry has come from a poor third place to lead by 26 per cent, with another surging candidate, Senator John Edwards, second at 23 per cent, early front-runner Howard Dean at 20 per cent and Congressman Richard Gephardt at 18 per cent, according to a Des Moines register poll.
The Iowa caucuses, where neighbours gather in schools, courthouses and front rooms to debate the candidates' merits, does not always favour the eventual winner. Only four out of 10 victors went on to get the nomination. It is even ignored by some contenders, like former general Wesley Clark who is concentrating on New Hampshire next week. But this year it has the potential to winnow the field and do serious damage to the early front runners. And dozens of camera crews and photographers have been jostling the candidates at every campaign stop as if this were the decisive nomination battle.
Most of the American media heavyweights such as Joe Klein of Time Magazine and Judy Woodruff of CNN were among the throng at the yellow-brick suburban hall in Des Moines to witness the emotional reunion of Senator Kerry with the man whose rescue in Vietnam earned Kerry a Bronze Medal. Mr Jim Rassman, a retired Los Angeles country sherriff and a registered Republican, told how he was slipping underwater for the last time when Kerry, wounded and under fire, pulled him aboard his patrol craft.
Rassman said he had followed Kerry's career on television. "I watch people on TV the way I watch people on the street and I believe John is a sincere person," he said to loud applause.
Importantly for Kerry, he was endorsed at the same event by Ako Abdul Samad, a hugly popular black community leader, who called him the best hope for America's underclass. Kerry displayed Clinton-esque communication skills with the crowd, talking without a script, no longer the aloof, detached Brahmin from New England of his early campaign days. He told the Des Moines Register he had taken a conscious decision to become more personal and "speak from his gut" and it seems to have worked. His message was simple and populist. He promised to "roll back tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and invest in health care," and to restore America's respect in the world. "I can feel it, I really can, this is a real turnaround," said Kerry as he left the event in a mob of reporters. To counter the huge inflow of young Dean enthusiasts from across America, hundreds of Vietnam veterans have come to support Kerry. One veteran who came on a 40-hour bush ride from Boston said Kerry was like Sea Biscuit, the famous horse that could always beat the favourite by reaching his peak at the right time.
Early on Howard Dean was propelled to the front on angry, anti-war sentiment but the war has ebbed as an issue in the final days in Iowa, and a loss for Dean would challenge the fundamental premise of his campaign, that he can energise a new generation of Democrats to help unseat George Bush.
Dick Gephardt from neighbouring Missouri, would also be devastated by defeat, as it would mean the people who know him best do not trust him to lead. His aides have been whipping up mostly elderly crowds of union members with cries of "Dick and Jane!", a reference to his wife Jane Gephardt who is always by his side - and a dig at the fact that Dean's wife, Dr Judith Steinberg, has never campaigned with him in Iowa. Yesterday Dean left the field of battle for a photo opportunity with former president Jimmy Carter in Georgia whom he praised as his "moral model". The former president attacked what he called the "completely unnecessary and unjust war" in Iraq.
Such high-profile endorsements have limited effect. Several people I talked to said that they were thinking of switching from Dean because of reservations about his ability to beat Bush, and might vote for Kerry or Senator John Edwards. The boyish-looking North Carolina senator has surged in the last few weeks, mainly because he has been relentlessly upbeat and has not engaged in negative campaigning. His rise is even more spectacular than Kerry's.
If the first-term senator wins here it will be a major turnup for the books. With 47 per cent of Iowa voters still undecided, and four candidates bunched together in front, anything can happen tonight.