Global warming means temperatures could rise by 6 degrees this century, but the trend is reversible, environmental author Mark Lynas tells Brian O'Connell
A new report on climate change issued by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) this week predicted that within 50 years a rise of almost 3 degrees in Ireland's average temperature was now likely. The report spelt out the consequences of such a rise including drought conditions, increased flooding and the possible extinction of some cold climate species in Ireland, while large sections of coastal land could be lost to rising sea levels within decades. Some of these changes are now "unavoidable", the report argued, with Ireland displaying one of the highest emissions per capita of greenhouse gases in the world.
For UK author and environmental activist Mark Lynas, the report helps validate the claims he makes in his new book, Six Degrees, that average temperatures could rise by 6 degrees in the next 100 years with almost apocalyptic consequences. Coupled with the EPA report, Lynas's new book comes across less like titillating faction and more like scientific foresight.
"The book arose from the general sense of apocalypse that is prevalent in some quarters and the assumption that it might be just around the corner. It occurred to me that a good way to look at what the predications were would be to find all the scientific literature I could get my hands on and illustrate the impact of each degree rise on the environment." The results make for bleak reading, with Lynas arguing that large parts of the world will be made uninhabitable by the turn of the century if current trends continue.
Ireland and the UK can expect summers on a par with North Africa by 2050, while flooding in winter will have disastrous effects on large swathes of our coastline. As spelt out by the EPA report, it may already be too late to reverse a temperature rise of between 1 and 2 degrees, with the melting of the ice caps and extremes in weather now upon us. The report went on to argue that Ireland would simply have to adapt to "changes and impacts that are now unavoidable".
While such reports bolster Lynas's claims, he's keen to emphasise that the worst-case scenario is still reversible. "It's important to understand that we don't have to reach 4, 5 or 6 degrees if we cut back on emissions. I compare it to the scenario that if your kitchen is on fire, you don't sit in the livingroom being depressed about it. You go and put it out. If we act now, and there is sufficient will, then we can claw ourselves back from the worst effects of the impact of global warming."
Lynas says he is cautiously optimistic, given the change in political will over the past months, yet others are less cheery. Katherine Pearce, an international climate campaigner with Friends of the Earth, offers caution when making predictions on the earth's future.
"I haven't read the book but I'm not certain where he's getting his information from. I don't know if he bases his work on purely scientific information. A number of reports are already available saying that the scenario is certainly looking bleak enough." Furthermore, Pearce is less optimistic about the change in international political will.
"I see some change in political will but not enough. Last week the EU issued support for cutting carbon emissions by 20 per cent, but most scientists agree that this needs to be 30 per cent. The political will is not matching the predictions from scientists, and in particular, countries like the US and Australia continue to drag their heels." Back in the UK, Lynas continues to look to a potential future. Given our geographic location, he argues that both Ireland and the UK could attract a large-scale influx of central Europeans should parts of Europe become uninhabitable.
"I don't think Ireland or the UK will be rendered uninhabitable should the temperatures continue to rise unabated. We will still be able to grow food, yet it may be that how we respond to the collapse of civilisation abroad that determines our future. Should tens of millions of people be forced out of central Europe, they will need places to live and survive, and Ireland and the UK could become some of the most valuable real estate on the planet." In defence of his findings, he says his research is based on scientific studies, having sifted through tens of thousands of reports while compiling the publication. While none of the predictions in the book are certain to happen, neither can they be discarded out of hand, he argues.
"Most of the research involved scanning through papers published in respected peer journals which looked at how different aspects of the landscape might look at a time when the earth is warmer. I've sent the book to a few scientists and they are happy with it. I'm confident it's an accurate reflection of research that's already out there; I just brought it together in a more accessible way." He looks back to High Tide, his first publication almost seven years ago, and his efforts travelling the globe in search of the effects of global warming. It's seems like a lifetime ago given the current situation.
"I have an allotment with apple trees in it. Most of them were flowering in December, which means that there probably won't be fruit this year. In January I still had caterpillars on my cabbage, who should have been wiped out by frost in October. Anyone who has contact with nature will tell you how much the seasons have begun to shift. It's just that now I don't have to travel the world to see the effects. I only need to look out my back door."
THE AUTHOR'S PERSONAL engagement with the environment began in La Oroya in Peru, once a thriving village high up in the Andes, made picturesque by a meandering river through its centre. When Lynas walked through the area in the early 1970s, extensive mining had rendered it a desolate and forgotten outpost. Plants and vegetation were stained a bright green, while the river's fish stocks had succumbed to pollution. It was an eerie setting, and Lynas immediately registered the significance.
"I remember feeling that nature had been totally wiped out and how damaging it was for the people that had once lived there. I had a huge feeling of claustrophobia, I wanted to get out of the place as quickly as possible." Lynas was just seven years old, yet already his environmental conscience was alive and kicking. He spent much of the 1990s campaigning for environmental issues, including the protection of UK woodlands under threat at the time from an expanding British road network. At Manchester Airport, a large tract of what Lynas calls "beautiful, natural woodland" gave way to an extra terminal. As part of the argument put forward against destroying the wood, campaigners drew a link between the level of greenhouse gases emitted from internal UK flights and the need to preserve Britain's woodland. Lynas began to take notice of the bigger picture.
With his curiosity aroused, he decided to travel to areas of the world affected by global warming and see for himself the extent of the damage. The journey took him from the Arctic ice caps to the Sahara plains, and formed the basis of High Tide, simultaneously launching his reputation as an environmental campaigner of substance.
"Now the book is slightly out of date", admits Lynas. "I mean at the time (in 2000), it was quite a novel thing to say that global warming was a pressing issue: many people were arguing that it was a concern for future generations". His assertion that global warming was not only a pressing reality, but was happening far quicker than many people realised, was not universally embraced at the time. In the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, for example, where flooding had reached epidemic proportions, local people refused to pin the blame on global warming.
"Some of the older villagers had quite strong Christian values, and they refused to believe the island was flooding, because God had made a promise to Noah to prevent the floods," Lynas says. "But they weren't the only sceptics; at the time the Australian government was quite active in discouraging scientific support for climate change. Thankfully, though, the political will has changed somewhat."
Having successfully argued that the globe was heating up faster than anyone had anticipated, Lynas felt well positioned to detail the potential consequences of global warming in his new book.
Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas, is published on Mar 19 by HarperCollins, £12.99