There are few hopes and expectations among Palestinians and Arabs from the first visit to the Middle East of the US Secretary of State, Ms Madeleine Albright, which begins tomorrow. Although the three Arab leaders involved in peacemaking with Israel - the Palestine Authority President, Mr Yasser Arafat, King Hussein of Jordan, and the Egyptian President, Mr Hosni Mubarak - met on Sunday to co-ordinate their positions and reaffirm their support for the Oslo accords and the "land-for-peace" formula, they had no means of exerting pressure on Israel to deliver on its commitments. Equally they had no way to press Ms Albright to encourage Israel to do so.
The leader under greatest pressure, Mr Arafat, apparently decided several months ago that the peace process will not prosper as long as Mr Benjamin Netanyahu was Prime Minister of Israel. According to knowledgeable Palestinian sources, Mr Arafat is determined to do his best to sustain the Oslo process in a comatose state until it could be reawakened, in future, once a peace-minded government took power in Israel.
Mr Arafat took that decision because he had no alternative. Mr Netanyahu has made it clear that his government has no intention of following the policy of the previous Labour coalition to honour, however imperfectly, the Oslo accords which the Palestinians believed would produce a sovereign entity they could call a homeland. Without the promise of such an outcome, Mr Arafat could not be prepared to make the sort of sacrifices the Israelis demand, particularly on the security front. Mr Netanyahu has said his "peace plan" would proceed to "generous autonomy" in tight territorial enclaves surrounded by Israeli-controlled territory.
Having taken the decision to disengage from Mr Netanyahu, Mr Arafat has apparently evolved a strategy designed to carry the Oslo accords through this troubled time. On the home front he has decided to cultivate his own constituency by broadening the base of his popular support and embracing disillusioned Palestinians who, in the 15 months since Mr Netanyahu came to power, gravitated towards the Islamic and secular opposition.
Although firm grassroots backing for the Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups has not really grown from 10 to 15 per cent, recurrent crises in the peace process and Israel's failure to withdraw from West Bank villages produced a shift away from Mr Arafat. Thus, Mr Arafat's public embrace of Hamas leaders last month was meant to recoup the support of the alienated rather than to accommodate opponents of the peace process. Mr Arafat evidently intends to do the minimum on the security front. Mr Netanyahu has demanded the extradition of more than 150 Palestinians listed as Islamic militants and the dismantling of the "terrorist infrastructure". For Mr Arafat to follow the diktat of Mr Netanyahu would be political suicide.
On the international front, Mr Arafat would like to keep the Oslo formula in the public mind as the sole solution to the Palestinian-Israeli problem.
Finally, on the Israeli front, Mr Arafat apparently seeks to sustain the Oslo "dream" and the promise of potential Palestinian-Israeli partnership by appealing to the majority of Israelis who routinely opt for peace in public opinion polls. His ultimate aim is to return to substantive negotiations, in accordance with the Oslo action plan, once Mr Netanyahu has left office.