Archbishop Martin may be named cardinal

The Archbishop of Dublin, Dr Diarmuid Martin, may this week be appointed a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI.

The Archbishop of Dublin, Dr Diarmuid Martin, may this week be appointed a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI.

The Vatican rumour mill has been whirring at full speed in recent weeks with media speculation suggesting that Pope Benedict will soon call his first consistory, perhaps even announcing it during his weekly general audience in St Peter's Square tomorrow.

If that were to be the case, then the consistory might well be scheduled for March 25th, the Feast of the Annunciation.

Predicting the timing of a consistory is extremely difficult. Not for nothing has the media sounded three false alarms in the nine months since Pope Benedict's election to the seat of Peter last April.

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There are no statutory relegations governing the timing of a consistory. The pope alone decides when one should be convened and who should get the red hat.

For a variety of reasons, though, Vatican observers argue that a consistory is now imminent.

For a start, by the end of March, there will be 12 vacancies among the elector cardinals (those under 80). An indication of the Vatican's equivalent of a cabinet reshuffle came last week when Pope Benedict named English archbishop Michael Fitzgerald, formerly president of the Pontifical Council for Inter-Religious Dialogue, as his new nuncio in Egypt and ambassador to the Arab League.

Technically, there is a ceiling of 120 elector cardinals in the college. Currently, there are 110 voting-age cardinals but between now and the end of March, Cardinal Bernard Agré of the Ivory Coast and Archbishop of Dublin Emeritus Desmond Connell will both celebrate their 80th birthdays.

In effect, this means that by the end of March, Ireland will be without a vote in a future conclave.

Speculation about Dr Martin, though, is not linked to Ireland's voting rights at a future conclave. In a more realpolitik sense, it is believed that the appointment would strengthen his authority in the difficult context of an ever more secular, ever more "anti-church" modern Ireland.

Furthermore, Pope Benedict has known Dr Martin for well over 20 years and his elevation to cardinal would reflect the widespread belief in Vatican circles that the archbishop will one day be recalled to a senior position in the Holy See.

Vatican tradition points to a number of almost automatic appointments which see "cabinet members" or heads of Vatican congregations and councils being named cardinal. In this contest, there are as many as six probable curia nominations.

Other strong candidates include the late Pope John Paul's private secretary, Stanislao Dziwisz, currently Archbishop of Cracow, Poland.

Important archdioceses in line for a red hat are those of Bologna, Paris, Toledo, Hong Kong, Boston, Barcelona, Brasilia, Aparecida (also in Brazil), Quito (Ecuador) and Manila in the Philippines.

Even though there are more candidates than places, it is still believed that Dr Martin will be among those named by Pope Benedict.